Let's talk about Trump, 72 hours, Ukraine, and declining power.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump, 72 hours, Ukraine, and declining power.

On Monday, Trump said, "I think we're doing very well with Ukraine and Russia. For the first time, I'm saying that I think we're going to maybe have some good news." Everybody waited wondering what the good news might be. This statement is coming about nine months after what Trump called his final offer.

So what was the news? Do you remember how presidents like Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Reagan stared across the table looking at their Soviet counterparts and told them, "Stay out of West Germany, and if you attack for more than 3 days at a time, we might do something." That's how the US won the Cold War, by establishing a nice, neat little 72-hour window in which the Soviets could attack without a US response, right? That's how you project strength, right? No, you don't remember anything like that. Yeah, me neither because that's just an invitation to attack.

But that's exactly what reporting says the proposed US plan is. In the event of a Russian violation of some future ceasefire during the first 24 hours, Ukraine's military would respond and the West would send a sternly worded letter as a diplomatic warning. After that, a coalition of the willing made up of European countries that, how do I say this nicely, don't trust Putin would respond. Only after 72 hours of fighting would a coordinated response, including the US, be attempted. 72 hours.

I'm just wondering, is it cumulative or can Russia attack for 2 days, wait a week, and then attack again? A lot can happen in 72 hours. That's 3 days. Hey, what was the initial timeline Russia wanted to take Kiev in? But here's the thing. Russia isn't going to believe the US will respond after 72 hours anyway because it's coming from a guy whose foreign policy is known as chicken and waffles and his economic policies inspired the taco trade.

So what does that mean if it doesn't end? It means it spreads. Eventually, it spreads to the point where the US gets dragged in kicking and screaming. Trump's desire to avoid paying to help Ukraine with dollars may mean American troops pay for it in person.

The only good news is that Ukraine and Europe know everything I'm saying, and some European countries who actually understand how deterrence works have agreed to put in tripwire troops and European nations understand that this isn't a formula for peace, just a pause. They'll nod their head and smile and let Trump think he did something like a younger brother who thinks he's playing a video game when the controller isn't connected.

But France is beefing up their navy and missiles. A step towards those delivery systems we talked about. Norway is dropping serious cash for Ukraine's air defense and other European nations are stepping up to fill the vacuum left by the declining power of the US. They certainly appear like their plan is to use the pause to strengthen their own defense and capability to defend Ukraine without the US.

While the Trump administration thinks they're working out peace and doing well, Russia sent hundreds of drones to strike Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. How many times do you think they could launch a barrage like that in 72 hours?

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.