Let's talk about Trump not ruling out a draft for Iran.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump refusing to rule out a draft for Iran.

Okay. So, over the years we've fielded numerous questions about a potential draft in the United States. The answer has always been, you really don't need to worry about this. Well, that was before the new administration. On Fox, Maria Bartiromo asked Trump's press secretary a pretty direct question. "I want to get your take about this idea of troops on the ground. Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have a draft, that they're going to see their sons and daughters get involved in this. What do you want to say about the president's plans for troops on the ground?"

The person responsible for speaking to the public on Trump's behalf said, "President Trump wisely does not remove options off the table. I know a lot of politicians like to do that quickly, but the president as commander-in-chief wants to continue to assess the success of this military operation. It's not part of the current plan right now, but the president again wisely keeps his options on table.”

Okay, so let's do the standard math that up until now has always been used to help people relax. The problem is Iran is a very populous country. Standard occupation math is 20 troops per 1,000 residents. Iran has a population of roughly 92 million. So 92 million divided by a 1,000 times 20 means you need roughly 1.8 million troops. We have about 1.3 million active duty. We can call up the reserves, National Guard, and so on. That'll give us another 800,000 or so, 2.1 million. We need 1.8 million, but we keep about 500,000 stationed overseas in various locations, and we can't just yank them without disrupting the balance of power and starting other wars. Just that puts us below the needed number.

But we also need troops states side, and the number we're working with includes sailors, clerks, and so on. People we're probably not deploying inside Iran. Just assuming we aren't yanking sailors off boats that drops our total number 300,000. In short, yeah, we need troops. Lots of them.

Would they really draft? Under normal circumstances, the strongest ally people who don't want to be drafted have was bizarrely the Department of Defense. It learned in Vietnam that volunteer service was more productive. The new department leadership seems to be the sort that would view compulsory service as a good thing. Some nonsense about character building. I'm sure you can't ignore this possibility.

Regardless of what the administration says after this point, we don't have the troops to successfully occupy Iran without more. A lot more. The active draft pool is about 17 million, but only about a quarter of those could serve without a waiver. Of course, with this administration, it's possible they just refuse to accept the advice of experts, go in with less troops, and follow the mistakes of the past. So, here's the thing. If you're on social media talking about how great Trump's elective war is, that recruiter's chair is empty right now or is it suddenly not that important?

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.