Let's talk about Trump blocking the strait after failing to get a peace deal.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump blocking the Strait after failing to get a peace deal.

Vance flew over to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran. After endless hours of talks, there was no peace deal. And it doesn't really sound like they got close to an agreement with Iran saying US demands were unreasonable and Vance saying that Iran wouldn't agree to whatever the US position is on their nuclear program. Vance said they gave their last best final offer, which seems incredibly unlikely.

Iran said they had no plans for another round of talks, but also said, "Diplomacy never comes to an end," which is a little more accurate. No matter what the administration says, Trump knows he'll be talking to Iran again and that eventually he'll have to provide a better offer because they're not in a hurry to make concessions.

Aaron David Miller is a former State Department Middle East negotiator, and his assessment of the situation is one that Trump isn't going to want to admit. He said, "It seems to me they still have the highly enriched uranium. They've demonstrated they've weaponized geography. They control and now manage the Strait of Hormuz. The regime has survived." He also said, "They've demonstrated a terrifying capacity to undermine security and stability. All of these things represent cards."

Okay, somebody call Zelensky and let him know the next hand is going to be one to watch.

We've covered all of these elements individually. the uranium, the mastery of geography, control of the strait, the lack of regime change, and Iran demonstrating a much wider capacity than US estimates suggested. The problem for Trump is that there's a big difference between me saying it in a foreign policy explainer and it becoming common knowledge and part of the news cycle.

Trump can't claim victory, obliteration, annihilation, and so on if Iran is not just sending the Trump administration packing without even a token agreement, but they also seem to be primarily concerned with protecting the gains they obtained during the war. Gains.

Iran advanced their state policy and interests. The US didn't achieve any of their stated policy aims. In fact, it looks like China is even going to be upgrading Iran's air defenses.

In response to another defeat, Trump has decided to blockade the Strait. I know you're saying that can't be right because Iran is already blockading the Strait. But Trump said, "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the finest in the world, will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out basis. But Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying there may be a mine out there somewhere that nobody knows about but them. This is world extortion and leaders of countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”

Let's be clear, Trump wanted to be cut in on the toll thing a few days ago. He described it as a joint venture. They wouldn't let him in on the shake down. So, in response, he'll apparently blockade the trade of the world, destabilizing prices again, raising costs on the working class again. He also threatened to attack civilian infrastructure unless he gets a deal again.

So after saying no more negotiations, Trump has been reduced to acknowledging Iran isn't defeated while begging the country for a deal and threatening world shipping and hits on civilians if he doesn't get his way. Congress needs to pull the plug on this. It can still get far worse.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.