Donald Trump has now ordered new tariffs of 30 percent against exports of the EU and Mexico, and 35 percent against Canada, as well as higher tariffs against more than a dozen other countries including close allies Japan and South Korea. The abrupt announcement of the new duties to take effect August 1, posted on Truth Social, caught diplomats by surprise, including Trump’s own negotiators.

Why would a president snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory when tariff negotiations with our closest trading partners were close to bearing fruit? Because for Trump, supposedly the great dealmaker, tariffs are just another toy for him to demonstrate his arbitrary power. A deal ends the fun.

Will he just continue this game of making extreme threats and then suspending them for a few weeks, in this latest case until August 1, and then chickening out? Perhaps, but the world’s other trading nations are getting increasingly weary of getting stiffed after bargaining in good faith. The world’s other leaders are starting to plan for a kind of globalization that excludes the United States.

That would be an economic depressive for everyone. It would leave China in an even stronger position. The EU would make deals with nations genuinely hostile to the U.S.

In the meantime, even the relatively modest tariffs that Trump has already imposed are starting to do real economic damage. As Jared Bernstein has reported, GDP growth is on track to be just 1 percent this year, down from 3.2 percent in 2023 and 2.4 percent last year. Even the 10 percent baseline tariff in effect since April has been raising consumer prices. Core inflation is expected to be 3.2 percent this year, up from 2.2 percent last year.