David Graham: “In theory, the proposition seems foolproof: Everyone hates the taxman and loves to keep their money, so a tax cut must be politically popular.”

“But Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act has tested the theory and found it wanting. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows that more than half of Americans oppose the law, which cuts taxes for many Americans while reducing government spending. That result is in line with other polling. The data journalist G. Elliott Morris notes that only one major piece of legislation enacted since 1990 was nearly so unpopular: the 2017 tax cuts signed by President Donald Trump.”

“The response to the 2017 cuts was fascinating. Americans grasped that the wealthy would benefit most from the law, but surveys showed that large swathes of the population incorrectly believed that they would not get a break. ‘If we can’t sell this to the American people then we should be in another line of work,’ Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said at the time. Americans agreed, giving Democrats control of the House a year later.”

“If tax cuts are no longer political winners, that’s a major shift in American politics.”