General Discussion

the Republican leadership was going to have a brokered convention to choose another candidate but because Trump was so wildly popular among the 80% of their base who are authoritarians they realized that they could not win without him. So they put an authoritarian Strong Leader who was not committed to democracy as their candidate.
After the tax cut for the wealthy was passed in Trump's first term some Republican politicians started to drift away from Trump but that split was quashed too, because of Trump's popularity.
After the failed coup attempt there were a few weeks when Trump's popularity declined among his base. But when it became apparent that he would not be held personally responsible, his popularity rose back to it's baseline. His base didn't care that he had tried to overthrow democracy, they cared that he had failed and might be punished.
During President Biden's term, Trump's popularity among some groups actually rose.

All of this popularity is because of propagandization of an authoritarian base. Propaganda works best on people when they are stressed. It seems likely that when the Republicans need to switch their base's loyalty to Trump economic conditions will be bad and people will be frightened. It is also possible that Trump could start a war to gin up support.

If enough propaganda can be fed to a stressed population, and especially if Trump could be coerced into accepting a "president emeritus" position, I think that the Republican base could be weaned over. If he dies in office with the economy spiraling downward, it might be possible to pin the downturn on Vance. That's when a war to gin up support seems very likely.

And the votes will be combined with extreme disenfranchisement and gerrymandering and an incredible amount of money from our oiligarchs, and incredible propaganda from reich-wing news, religion, and social media.

I think that it is likely that the Republicans will hold the House and Senate.