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BootinUp

(50,626 posts)

4. Here is an expert on the subject

Wed Nov 5, 2025, 10:42 PM

Nov 5

from
Seven data-driven lessons from the 2025 elections
Democrats outran their polls and swept statewide races from Georgia to New Jersey, on an agenda of affordability and a broad anti-Trump backlash
G. Elliott Morris
Nov 05, 2025

Excerpt:
The other poll that almost nailed Virginia was… This poll that I did the weighting for! Instead of weighting by past vote, we came up with models of what the electorate should look like, including by party ID, and weighted the LV sample to those benchmarks. We had Spanberger +13 statewide, and also nailed several of the close House of Delegates races. In contrast, when I weighted our survey by 2024 past vote instead of party, Spanberger’s margin was just 6 points.

So, in summary about the polls, the best pollsters learn from their mistakes and use rigorous, transparent methods that are adaptable to different non-response environments. The list of pollsters who perform well and use the same methods over and over again is very short. Even good firms that don’t adapt die. Just ask Ann Selzer.

The article contains a lot more analysis
https://substack.com/home/post/p-178051880

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kcoates Fiendish Thingy Blasphemer Johonny malaise Bernardo de La Paz

31 replies

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Highlight:

Lol, Nate Silver Says Polls May Be Overestimating Trump [View all] gab13by13 Nov 5 OP

Other than endorsing Cuomo, it didn't seem like Musk was involved in yesterday's election Blue Owl Nov 5 #1

You have a link to what Silver said and the context? LearnedHand Nov 5 #2

It scrolled across my home page. gab13by13 Nov 5 #8

M Cohen said Pisswig purchased poll results dweller Nov 5 #3

Here is an expert on the subject BootinUp Nov 5 #4

Here is Morris's new polling site: Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #10

According to his chart there's a vergence in the force (trumps approval numbers). nt BootinUp Nov 5 #11

Could you translate that into English for me? Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #12

Its a real phrase from The Phantom Menace. I am mis-using it to refer to BootinUp Nov 6 #13

Quoting from the prequels... Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #19

Oh, I don't know about all that. Nt BootinUp Nov 6 #21

I've Watched Episode 3 Multiple Times ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #24

If you're a casual fan who can endure multiple viewings of Episode 3... Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #25

I Was Ok With The Latter ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #27

Andor is the prequel story to Rogue One Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #28

Vaguely Recall That ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #29

The second and final season of Andor just came out a couple of months ago. Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #31

This is how Newsweek quoted Silver. Silent Type Nov 5 #5

Polls make estimates about the makeup of the electorate based on previous elections EdmondDantes_ Nov 5 #6

So much winning? Drum Nov 5 #7

Corrupt failure says what? Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #9

They are based on data - Ms. Toad Nov 6 #14

Seems that for several years the pollsters Old Crank Nov 6 #15

A bit? malaise Nov 6 #16

well, I totally agree with you about the polls. raccoon Nov 6 #17

Of course the poll itself doesn't overestimate. It's just a poll. Clearly he's referring to ... QueerDuck Nov 6 #18

Modeling is used, so there "weighted" aspects to polling. Jbraybarten Nov 6 #20

When the questions are slanted Prairie_Seagull Nov 6 #22

Things that make your head explode LR3 Nov 6 #23

In election season pollsters are supposed to only measure likely voters Justice Brandeis Nov 6 #26

There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others. Norrrm Nov 6 #30