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EdmondDantes_

(1,151 posts)

6. Polls make estimates about the makeup of the electorate based on previous elections

Reply to gab13by13 (Original post)

Wed Nov 5, 2025, 10:52 PM

Nov 5

Things like the percentage of various groups in the overall electorate. X percent women, y percent black, z percent Republican, etc. That is used to weight the poll if they didn't get enough of each group in their randomly selected respondents.

In 2024 Harris only won New Jersey by 6 points. The polls might have estimated a higher Republican turnout because of that being the most recent election in the state. In particular while Trump has out performed polls when he's specifically on the ballot, in the 2018 mid terms Democrats out performed polls because of an enthusiasm gap since most Republicans don't have Trump's charisma with his voters.

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Blasphemer

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Highlight:

Lol, Nate Silver Says Polls May Be Overestimating Trump [View all] gab13by13 Nov 5 OP

Other than endorsing Cuomo, it didn't seem like Musk was involved in yesterday's election Blue Owl Nov 5 #1

You have a link to what Silver said and the context? LearnedHand Nov 5 #2

It scrolled across my home page. gab13by13 Nov 5 #8

M Cohen said Pisswig purchased poll results dweller Nov 5 #3

Here is an expert on the subject BootinUp Nov 5 #4

Here is Morris's new polling site: Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #10

According to his chart there's a vergence in the force (trumps approval numbers). nt BootinUp Nov 5 #11

Could you translate that into English for me? Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #12

Its a real phrase from The Phantom Menace. I am mis-using it to refer to BootinUp Nov 6 #13

Quoting from the prequels... Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #19

Oh, I don't know about all that. Nt BootinUp Nov 6 #21

I've Watched Episode 3 Multiple Times ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #24

If you're a casual fan who can endure multiple viewings of Episode 3... Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #25

I Was Ok With The Latter ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #27

Andor is the prequel story to Rogue One Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #28

Vaguely Recall That ProfessorGAC Nov 6 #29

The second and final season of Andor just came out a couple of months ago. Fiendish Thingy Nov 6 #31

This is how Newsweek quoted Silver. Silent Type Nov 5 #5

Polls make estimates about the makeup of the electorate based on previous elections EdmondDantes_ Nov 5 #6

So much winning? Drum Nov 5 #7

Corrupt failure says what? Fiendish Thingy Nov 5 #9

They are based on data - Ms. Toad Nov 6 #14

Seems that for several years the pollsters Old Crank Nov 6 #15

A bit? malaise Nov 6 #16

well, I totally agree with you about the polls. raccoon Nov 6 #17

Of course the poll itself doesn't overestimate. It's just a poll. Clearly he's referring to ... QueerDuck Nov 6 #18

Modeling is used, so there "weighted" aspects to polling. Jbraybarten Nov 6 #20

When the questions are slanted Prairie_Seagull Nov 6 #22

Things that make your head explode LR3 Nov 6 #23

In election season pollsters are supposed to only measure likely voters Justice Brandeis Nov 6 #26

There are many polls. Pick the one you like and swear by it. Swear at the others. Norrrm Nov 6 #30