I don't think 7 points ahead is enough.
The early deciders / early to mail in their ballots are always more centrist here in Seattle. The vote that is counted later (ballots that arrive by mail closer to the deadline, or that folks drop in drop boxes up to the last minute) is always more liberal.
A reversal of more than 7 points is far from unheard of. In fact, in 2021, there was a 12 point reversal. He won, but his total dwindled from 65% to 59%, a 12-point reversal toward the more progressive candidate.
And this time around, he had more problems. He has been kind of a dick. This is from The Stranger voting guide:
In this mayor’s race, we are relitigating the same conversation we’re always relitigating in Seattle: Do we want a mayor like Katie Wilson, who is interested in making our city better for people, or one like Bruce Harrell, who is interested in making it better for businesses? There’s another question, too. Do you want your mayor to be a dick? That would be Harrell.
...
He has used the victims of gun violence as political props while ignoring their mothers’ pleas for help. As PubliCola reported, when mothers asked him to show up for their community, he picked a fight with one of them, slammed his hand on the table, and told her, “I didn’t even want to come here,” before trying to storm out of the room. From our endorsement meeting, we can tell you that spending 59 floor-stomping minutes in a room with him could be sold as a great escape room. We wanted to jump out of the window.
Misogyny is pervasive throughout the Harrell administration and the Harell campaign. Half a dozen women who worked in his office have called it a “boys club” where women were condescended to. His main criticism of Wilson, a woman who’s been in the grassroots Seattle political sphere for decades, is inexperience. Harrell cannot bring himself to say “his opponent’s” name, let alone acknowledge that she can and will do a much better job than him...
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