will get the economy to be good for them. I think there are very ominous other factors at play in the economy right now. The extreme rapid growth in the debt and deficit for one. Really unprecedented and although the tax cuts were predicted to make increases in these areas none of the economists/market watchers were predicting this fast/large of an increase. Keeping in mind that the majority of the tax cut impact won't even be felt at the Treasury until after April 15th, 2026 when the first round period of tax returns is over reflecting the bulk of the first year decrease in revenue. The Treasury can try and play games in their reporting but by and large the numbers here are too big to hide.
It reminds me in a way of Bernie Ebbers and Worldcom. Eventually the lies can't cover the sheer magnitude of the fraud.
I think the costs of not having universal healthcare are not going to go away with a tariff decision and the increased premiums are coming down to who pays the huge amount, or not, as opposed to seeing the premiums lowered overall. The for-profit health industry is trillions of dollars in profits and we always know those trillions are what's left after paying for actual care.
The headwinds the carmakers have aren't so much tariff related as they are market reluctance at super high prices and that reluctance was there before the tariffs. Regarding agriculture even if the tariffs ended tomorrow the damage done to the US farmers and the supply chain is already baked in. Also I don't look for China to turn away from Brazil and Argentina and return all of that purchasing to the US. I think it is part of their long term foreign policy strategy to strengthen their influence and participation in this hemisphere. For them this makes complete sense since diversity in sourcing is better than concentration. Especially when that concentration would be with the US and expose China to all of what having to always be pressured by the US entails.
Housing is sky high and has been before tariffs and affordability is moving further away even if mortgage rates come down because the housing unit shortage keeps the prices offsetting and gains of lower interest rates.
These are just some of the reasons why I think the economy is facing things way beyond what the tariff decision can impact in time for the mid-terms.
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