General Discussion

1. If Senate Democrats continued to hold out for restoration of ACA subsidies would the following have happened: Republicans would ultimately pass ACA subsidies in the Senate; then in the House; then The Felon would sign it?

2. How much additional human suffering and continued dismantling of government agencies would occur as the shutdown dragged on?

3. How would prolonging the harm in #2 affect the outcome of the 2026 mid-term elections?


I highly doubt #1 because the Republican Party has for generations wanted to dismantle the administrative/welfare state embodied in Project 2025. The Felon was practically gleeful about the shutdown, and I'm sure Vought was as well. The meager concessions gained by Senate Democrats will ostensibly prevent further mass layoffs and obtain back pay for government employees. That partially addresses #2 as well. Government employees would certainly suffer, as would numerous citizens who depend on services disrupted or dismantled. Also, SNAP benefits would be delayed or worse. Hungry children are a consideration.

I think the paragraph above explains why Senate Democrats decided to end the shutdown. They do NOT want the ACA subsidies to end, but saw little chance the R's would pass legislation to restore it (#1) and saw that prolonging the suffering and destruction was too high a price to pay in a battle for ACA that could not be won. Not this year, at least.

#3 is the real wildcard here. We HAVE TO win back at least the House, or The Felon's power and destruction continues unabated with no effective oversight. Last week's elections show that voters not only tend to blame the party in power, but are increasingly appalled by ICE & troops in American cities, alienating our closest allies, and much of what The Felon is doing. So the question here hinges partly on the blame game 11+ months from now. Would the increased suffering & damage of prolonging the shutdown land entirely on the Republicans, even if the Democratic holdout severely impacted Thanksgiving and Christmas (canceled flights to visit with family, etc)? The answer is in who gets the upper hand in blame game messaging. The other thing the mid-term elections hinge on is voter turnout. Will this recent "capitulation" by Senate Democrats reduce souls to the polls like the Gaza atrocity did last year, or will so much Orange shit be flung between now and next November to energize voter turnout?

By no means do I have all the answers, but I think I'm asking some necessary questions.