General Discussion

Because when it does - possibly even before if they hit unlucky - all hell will let loose in Russia.

They're already having severe problems dealing with ultra-violent and unwelcome returnists among those who miraculously survived tours of duty in the conflict and somehow managed to make it back to the homeland without being pressganged immediately into another tour.

I doubt Lavrov, let alone Putin, could even describe precisely what this "capitulation" would look like and play out in practice. Even if Ukraine's leadership succumbed, a decent proportion of its population wouldn't go along with it, so it would be a very uneasy and fragile "peace".

And then, even in the unlikely event the Ukrainian population was quelled, Russia would have to count up the cost and what was actually gained from the conflict, including an enduringly suspicious and decidely hostile European bloc to its west, an ambitious and very powerful one to its east, and increasingly dissatisfied satellite states to its south.