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Two Trump appointees.

I dissent. Last CPI report:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143496078



News report from the source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

I annualize everything to be comparable to each other and to compare to the Fed's 2% target

They are calculated using the actual index values, not from the rounded off monthly change numbers.

The CPI rise averaged 2.4% over the past 3 months on an annualized basis (core CPI: 2.4%)
The June one month increase annualized is: CPI: 3.5%, (core CPI: 2.8%)

REGULAR CPI


CORE CPI


Both the CPI and Core CPI 3 month rolling average were helped a lot when the huge January increases dropped out of the 3-month window, and were hurt a lot when the March decrease for the CPI and the tiny increase for the Core CPI dropped out of the window.

The rolling 12 months averages graphs are in the OP. They were hurt by last year's very small June 2024 month-over-month increases dropping out of the 12 month window. What drops out of the window is just as important as what enters the 12 month window (which is the latest, June 2025).

Some featured items from the BLS news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Increases in June over May:
Shelter: +0.2%, Energy: +0.9%, Gasoline: +1.0%, Food and food at home: +0.3%, Food way from home: +0.4%,

12 month increases:
Energy: -0.8%, Food: +3.0%

Bar graph of increases and decreases of various CPI components arranged from highest increase to lowest and then decreases, 12 month numbers (year-over-year)

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/june-inflation-breakdown-consumers-feel-the-pinch-with-tariffs-looming-181129115.html
Household energy +7.1%
Auto insurance: +6.1%
Housing: +4.0%
Restaurant meals: +3.8%
. . .
Hotel rooms: -2.5%
Electronics: -3.3%
Airfare -3.5%
Gasoline: -8.3%

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We get a look at PCE inflation for June tomorrow, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. I don't expect it to be as high as the CPI report was, because it seldom is. That's partly or mostly because the PCE is a "chained" index which means that, for example, if enough consumers switch from beef to turkey necks and other lower-cost kinds of meat, then it will show up as a decrease in meat prices in the PCE. That's because chained types of indices fully include substitution effects.

One other thing comes to mind: the PCE puts LESS weight on shelter than the CPI does. Shelter increases have been high relative to most other components, so this tends to make the PCE come out lower than the CPI.

The estimate for tomorrow's PCE June over May increases are +0.3% for both the regular and the core numbers (those are about 3.6% when annualized, which is kinda hot), but I doubt they will be that high, again because of the substitution effect.