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progree

(12,240 posts)
4. Personal income and personal spending, the other part of this report
Thu Jul 31, 2025, 10:09 AM
Jul 31
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-prices-increased-more-than-expected-in-june-123314802.html
Elsewhere in the release, data showed mixed signs of slowing economic activity. Real personal spending, which adjusts for inflation, rose 0.3%, below estimates for a 0.4% increase. Real personal spending had decreased 0.3% in May. ((I'd have to study this one, I don't think it's inflation-adjusted spending but rather nominal spending that rose 0.3% -Progree))

Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.3% after falling 0.4% the month prior. ((since inflation was 0.3% in June, that means real personal income was flat -Progree))


Edited to add: Later, from AP: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-key-us-inflation-gauge-rose-last-month-as-trump-s-tariffs-lifted-goods-prices/ar-AA1JEAQW
Thursday's report also showed that consumer spending rose 0.3% from May to June, a modest rise that suggests Americans are still spending cautiously. Adjusted for inflation, the increase was just 0.1%, the government said.


So yes, Yahoo 3 paragraphs above was wrong ("Real personal spending, which adjusts for inflation, rose 0.3%,"). As for why with consumer spending up 0.3% and inflation up 0.3%, why inflation-adjusted aka "real" spending was up 0.1% (and not 0.0%), it's just that the govt does calculations from the index values using several digits of accuracy, and then round the results, so sometimes that results in the rounded value being 0.1 percentage point more or less than if you did one-digit-of-accuracy calculations like 0.3% - 0.3% = 0.0%

The term "real" means inflation-adjusted in BEA and BLS-speak

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https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-june-202

Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. ((this means it's flat after inflation -Progree))

Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) ((this means it's flat after inflation -Progree))

and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent). ((this means it's flat after inflation, but actually it increased 0.1% because of how things rounded, per table near bottom of https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2025 -Progree))

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June.

Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.
(all emphasis added. I paragraphinated the block text to where each item is its own paragraph because this is my f***ing post

BEA Tables at: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/pi0625.pdf

Here's one segment from https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2025

Personal Income and Related Measures
[Percent change from May to June]
Current-dollar personal income 0.3
Current-dollar disposable personal income 0.3
Real disposable personal income 0.0
Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE) 0.3
Real PCE 0.1

PCE price index 0.3
PCE price index, excluding food and energy 0.3
(emphasis added by Progree)

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