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progree

(12,200 posts)
6. Probably a post where I predicted that it wouldn't be as high as the expected +0.3% regular and +0.3% core
Thu Jul 31, 2025, 11:35 AM
Jul 31

because the last CPI came in at +0.3% and +0.2%, and the PCE tends to be lower because it is a chained type index that fully takes substitution into account (so that if enough people switch from beef consumption to turkey necks, it shows up as a reduction in meat prices). Also that the PCE puts lower weight on shelter than the CPI.

Well, I was wrong, today's PCE came out at the expected +0.3% and +0.3%.

Tomorrow is the exciting "First Friday" BLS payroll jobs and unemployment rate report, and perhaps the return of the "Krasnov Krasnov Krasnov" brigade.

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