Latest Breaking News

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

There are three remaining meetings in 2025: 9/17, 10/29, and 12/10

At the end of the 12/10 meeting:
0.7% expect the rate to be at the current level, 425-450
10.3% expect the rate to be lower by 0.25%
42.3% expect the rate to be lower by 0.50%
46.7% expect the rate to be lower by 0.75%

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By the way, the last dot plot was in the June 2025 meeting, long before the woeful jobs report, and long before Adrianna Kugler's resignation. It showed FOMC officials' expected number of rate cuts to be two in 2025 (that was their median projection).

Nine officials said no to a rate cut at the last meeting (July 30-31). But that's not the same as a "no" to rate cuts later in the year.

BTW, they did not produce a dot plot at the July meeting. It's something they do only quarterly.

ETA - Oh, next Tuesday the CPI report comes out for July. There are quite a number of inflation reports (CPI, PPI wholesale prices, and PCE) before the next FOMC meetings, as well as jobs reports (first Friday of each month). Amongst many other jobs and economic reports. So all projections of what the Fed might do are very much subject to changes.