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progree

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14. Anyone looking for the month-by-month revisions, with the hope of finding out how much of the 911k revision

Tue Sep 9, 2025, 01:36 PM

Sep 9

Last edited Mon Sep 22, 2025, 02:21 AM - Edit history (6)

occurred in the 9 2/3 months of the Biden administration, and how much occurred in the 2 1/3 months of the tRump administration (remember this report covers the 12 months through March 2025), will be disappointed. I've looked thru all of it --

News release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm

Technical note: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.tn.htm

Calculation aggregation procedures: www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/calculation.htm#aggregation-procedures

For the CES-N program, annual benchmarks are constructed to realign the sample-based employment estimates for March of each year with the universe employment counts for that month. Population counts are much less timely than sample-based estimates, and they are used to provide an annual point-in-time census of employment. Only the not seasonally adjusted March estimates are replaced with population counts.

Monthly estimates for the year preceding the March benchmark are readjusted using a "wedge-back" procedure. The difference between the final benchmark level and the previously published March sample-based estimate is calculated and spread back across the previous 11 months. The wedge is linear; eleven-twelfths of the March difference is added to the February estimate, ten-twelfths to the January estimate, and so on, back to the previous April estimate, which receives one-twelfth of the March difference. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error since the prior benchmark accumulated at a steady rate. ((I don't see any table or such of these in the current one, they may be talking about the final benchmark report that will be released in February 2026. In any case, it's just spreading the 911,000 point-in-time March 2025 cumulative difference (or whatever the number is in the final estimate) evenly back through the 12 months, so it's not an attempt to find the actual monthly differences -- Progree))

. . . Benchmark revisions from 1979 forward are available in the CES total nonfarm benchmark revisions table ( https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#tb5 ).

See the CES Benchmark Article ( https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm ) for more details about the most recent benchmark.

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The 911k 12-month number amounts to an average of 75.9k/month average

Here are the nonfarm payroll jobs numbers that were reported 9/5/25 for perspective
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143524396#post11

The headline payroll job numbers (+22,000 in AUGUST) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 225 869 471 305 241 461 696 237 227 400 297 126
2023: 444 306 85 216 227 257 148 157 158 186 141 269
2024: 119 222 246 118 193 87 88 71 240 44 261 323
2025: 111 102 120 158 19 -13 79 22

The numbers at this time series will not be revised by the benchmark adjustment until the final benchmark report to be released in February 2026.
(The last 2 months -- July and August -- are still subject to revisions in the regular usual monthly jobs report procedures)

ETA 9/9 300p ET: In the Biden months of the benchmark revision period -- April 2024 thru January 2025 - job growth averaged 153.6k/month.
The average per-month benchmark revision is 911k/12 = 75.9k
If one reduces the 10 Biden months by 75.9k/month, that leaves only 77.6k/month average job growth in the 10 Biden months

(yes, in the above calculation, I'm including January 2025 as a Biden month, even though he was president for 2/3 of the month. That's because the survey week for the Establishment Survey that produces the numbers in the table above is the week that includes the 12th of the month -- that week in January is entirely before the inauguration).

For the tRump 2 months (Feb & March), job growth averaged 111k/month.
If one reduces the tRump months by 75.9k/month, that leaves only 35.1k/month average job growth in the two tRump months

If one accepts the April 2025 and following numbers in the table above as-is, but reduces February and March by 76k each, then one has for the tRump months:
FebMarApr MayJunJul Aug
26 44 158 19 -13 79 22 = 335k = 47.9k/month average job growth in the tRump months
(without the two 76k/month job reductions, it's 69.6k/month average job growth in the tRump months)

Any benchmark revisions to April 2025 and beyond are likely to be downward, reducing the tRump averageEnd ETA

=======================================
Note that this is a preliminary report:

The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

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Highlight:

Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized [View all] BumRushDaShow Sep 9 OP

Who is getting fired for this one? IronLionZion Sep 9 #1

To be clear, he'll blame this on the BLS Commissioner he already fired. Wiz Imp Sep 9 #2

A graphic depiction EYESORE 9001 Sep 9 #3

Time for the a new head of the agency. One per month until the numbers "improve". twodogsbarking Sep 9 #4

Yup, sounds like the beatings will continue durablend Sep 9 #5

There's really no reason for Trump to be upset at these numbers Wiz Imp Sep 9 #6

He can blame it on The Flintstones. People would suck it up. twodogsbarking Sep 9 #7

The beatings will continue until morale improves IronLionZion Sep 9 #11

This will be blamed on Biden. Trump will probably take credit progressoid Sep 9 #8

It already has from his pathologically lying, cult worshiping sychophant press secretary. AZ8theist Sep 9 #12

It's impossible to pinpoint exactly where the numbers got off track due to the nature of the different BLS programs Wiz Imp Sep 9 #13

Clear signal they intend to cook numbers going forward JCMach1 Sep 9 #9

Oh, damn, who gets fired today ? republianmushroom Sep 9 #10

Anyone looking for the month-by-month revisions, with the hope of finding out how much of the 911k revision progree Sep 9 #14

Is CNBC A Reliable Source? DallasNE Sep 9 #15

CNBC (obviously associated with Comcast/NBC/MSNBC) BumRushDaShow Sep 9 #19

Reminds me of the scene from "Trading Places" BaronChocula Sep 9 #16

So, Trump's team revised Biden's numbers down? 33taw Sep 9 #17

Are we sure this isn't The Felon/Rapist "cooking the books" to make Biden look worse? lastlib Sep 9 #18