Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
Editorials & Other Articles
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Latest Breaking News
In reply to the discussion: Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout [View all]Wiz Imp
(7,587 posts)15. Nice try. But you failed big time. You'll find that I've never typed a single word in any post here
that contradicts a single word that Erica Goshen said.
Not a single person here has ever claimed that the data quality would go down because of falling response rate (that I've seen. If someone did, I certainly never disagreed with them). Every single person posting here who doesn't want to believe that data released under a Trump administration could ever be honest, have insisted Trump (his administration) is intentionally manipulating the data. I've been trying to show people for months that they were wrong - the data from BLS to this point has been completely honest. Erica Goshen in fact effectively echoes my words about Acting Commissioner Bill Wiatrowski.
The acting commissioner, Bill Wiatrowski, is a career civil servant, incredibly dedicated and a skilled leader. So, I dont think [Trumps actions] will affect the way the two surveys are conducted and how the data are processed unless there is an outside attempt to interfere with its operations.
The rest of her statement is exactly what I would have said, if anyone had ever argued about the quality of data due to falling response rate. But that never happened. Everybody constantly says the data are manipulated or cooked or whatever other word they want to use for dishonest. Every one of these people has effectively argued that the Trump administration is making up all the economic data they are releasing. They are provably wrong and Erica Goshen agrees with that.
Of course Erica Goshen knows what she is talking about. Any statistician could tell you the lower the response rate to a survey with a stratified sample, the less reliable the data is going to be. For most of my career, you would have heard me complaining about low response rates. And as much as they can impact national data, the impact on State and Metropolitan Area data which I dealt with is significantly greater due to the samples being much smaller for the smaller geographic areas.
Could Trump's comments cause the response rates to go even lower? Of course. But that is not manipulating the data. It's just a natural side effect from anti-Government rhetoric.
If people want to complain about the quality of the data due to low response rates or Trump's rhetoric possibly lowering response rates which in turn could lower data quality, you won't find me disagreeing with them (unless they make incorrect assumptions about how the surveys work). But I have no patience for people who insist the data is being intentionally manipulated. It is simply not true and I will continue to call it out when I see it.
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
Recommendations
1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):
42 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations

Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout [View all]
BumRushDaShow
Wednesday
OP
A key MAGA report will have some cooked up numbers saying everything is awesome
IronLionZion
Wednesday
#1
Well, here's a former head of the BLS indicating Trump could impact upcoming reports, regardless of who's commissioner:
SunSeeker
Wednesday
#13
Nice try. But you failed big time. You'll find that I've never typed a single word in any post here
Wiz Imp
Wednesday
#15
"Ridiculous" is thinking we still live in a world where we don't have Trump slandering BLS staffers.
SunSeeker
Yesterday
#29
maga might easily ignore numbers, but corporations will not, and maga will notice layoffs around them
Bernardo de La Paz
Yesterday
#33
You failed at your implication of tRump interference. "unless" is a hypothetical, a possibility, nowhere near a fact.nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Wednesday
#22
Trump has interfered by slandering BLS statisticians. That is why Groshen is worried (her words).
SunSeeker
Yesterday
#28
We are all worried, but it is important to not cynically assume facts not in evidence. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Yesterday
#31
There's plenty of evidence of Trump defaming BLS staff and BLS survey responses dropping off.
SunSeeker
22 hrs ago
#36
Declines in survey responses have been happening slowly without tRump. There is no evidence he has accelerated it.
Bernardo de La Paz
22 hrs ago
#38
Groshen is not insulting BLS, nor am I. We are pointing out how Trump is harming BLS.
SunSeeker
20 hrs ago
#39
Your excerpt indicates NO problem from political influence and MAYBE survey lack of response maybe in the FUTURE. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Wednesday
#20
Groshen is worried for a reason. I think she knows what she is talking about.
SunSeeker
Yesterday
#30
Exactly as I stated. She is worried about survey participation, NOT about fudging data or calculations.
Bernardo de La Paz
Yesterday
#32
You fail to understand Groshen's (and my) point. Participation drops hurt data accuracy.
SunSeeker
22 hrs ago
#35
Data inaccuracy due to survey response rates is NOT corruption, NOR is it interference, NOR is it the fault of BLS.
Bernardo de La Paz
22 hrs ago
#37
ADP reported a loss in the monthly jobs report only once in Joe Biden's 4 years (March 23).
Wiz Imp
Wednesday
#11
Delaying the release of the Jobs Report during a shutdown is standard operating procedure
Wiz Imp
Wednesday
#16
No report coming out of the government with trump's hand picked cronies can be trusted.
lostincalifornia
Wednesday
#18
There are ZERO hand-picked cronies at BLS. The single one and only political nominee has been withdrawn.
Bernardo de La Paz
Wednesday
#23
Excuse me Bernardo. He just fired the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, because he didn't like
lostincalifornia
Wednesday
#24
It is a mistake to think that because one person was fired, suddenly all the unfired employees are corrupt
Bernardo de La Paz
Wednesday
#25
What, the Department of Justice is targeting the Presidents political enemies?
Buddyzbuddy
Wednesday
#19