Seniors may have to wait to see what 2026 Social Security COLA is due to shutdown [View all]
Source: USA Today
Oct. 2, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
Every year, older Americans wait for October to find out how much their monthly Social Security checks will increase next year. This year, they may have to wait longer.
The Social Security Administration planned to announce COLA, or cost-of-living adjustment, for 2026 on Oct. 15, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics was slated to release its September inflation report. However, all but one of the bureau’s 2,055 employees have been furloughed, amid an ongoing government shutdown. Scheduled releases of BLS' economic data, including the September consumer inflation report, “will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged,” according to shutdown plans.
Without September's inflation report, annual COLA can't be calculated. Annual COLA is based on average annual increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) from July through September.
"A government shut down could potentially delay an announcement of the COLA, but remember, the data is for September and that has already been collected," said Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst. So the data shouldn't be skewed, she said.
Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2025/10/02/government-shutdown-delay-2026-social-security-cola/86473100007/
There are many entities that do "estimates" based on the quarterly data that gets released during a year. Here is one from here - Social Security Benefits Get a COLA in 2026. Here's the Best and Worst Scenario for Retirees.
Social Security's 2026 COLA will likely land between 2.4% and 3%
The Social Security Board of Trustees in a report published earlier this year outlined three possibilities for the 2026 COLA: The high estimate says benefits will increase 3%, the low estimate says 2.4%, and the middle estimate says 2.7%. Here's what those figures mean for different beneficiaries:
Retired workers: The average retired-worker benefit was $2,008 in August. The forecasts above imply additional monthly income of $48 to $60 in 2026. The middle estimate implies an additional $54 per month or $648 for the full year. Spouses: The average spousal benefit was $955 in August. The forecasts above imply additional monthly income of $23 to $29 in 2026. The middle estimate implies an additional $26 per month or $312 for the full year. Survivors: The average survivors benefit was $1,575 in August. The forecasts above imply additional monthly income of $38 to $47 in 2026. The middle estimate implies an additional $43 per month or $516 for the full year. Disabled workers: The average disable-worker benefit was $1,583 in August. The forecasts above imply additional monthly income of $38 to $47 in 2026. The middle estimate implies an additional $43 per month or $516 for the full year.
Importantly, Medicare Part B premiums are usually deducted from Social Security benefits and the standard premium is forecast to increase $21.50 to $206.50 per month next year, according to the Medicare Board of Trustees. That would be the largest increase in nominal dollars since 2022, and more than double the $10.30 increase in 2025.
The Senior Citizen's League - Projected COLA for 2026 Remains at 2.7% (seems to be what most out there are estimating)
As a note, federal annuitants utilize the SS figure for COLAs too.
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