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Israel's Reaction/Overreaction Problem: Why Overcoming It Isn't Straightforward - William Spaniel [View all]
As Israel heads into Gaza, calls from across the political commentary spectrum warn of a trap. In particular, if Israel pushes too hard, it will radicalize many Palestinians, and it will make the problem ultimately worse than when the conflict started. Political violence researchers call this the "provocation" problem. However, overcoming it is not as simple as it may first appear.
0:00 Insurgencies and Overreaction
1:10 Israel's Current Overreaction Problem
2:58 The Hydra Effect
3:39 The Provocation Incentive
7:37 How Insurgencies Make the Problem Difficult to Solve
11:03 The Role of Intelligence
13:17 Flags, Dinosaurs, and Apollo 1
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