Michigan

They are pushing polls out hastily. And one of the polls everyone was talking about was 3 days of pre Biden dropping out and 1 day of post. So the mathcups with Harris were hypothetical until just now.

And let's not forget, Trump is still coming off the convention bump and sympathy from having his ear nicked. Plus he picked a VP in the middle of that.

Harris will pick a VP soon and then the convention is in late August. She will get bumps from those and then things will settle down until the debate (s). So I think we're still 6 weeks out from knowing the shape of the race.