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getagrip_already

(17,752 posts)
9. Ignore the numbers....
Thu Jul 25, 2024, 09:39 AM
Jul 2024

First, even the rrputable pollsters have no idea who will show up to vote, or how many of each demographic will be in the mix, and they have no way to determine it.

Those assumptions are key to designing an accurate poll.

Will it be a blue wave? A red wave? A roe wave? A youth wave? A black woman wave? An angry white wave? Some mix of all of those? Will it look like 2016 or 2020 or 2022 or 2023?

And an unscupulous pollster will bend those assumptions to their goals.

But dont look for big swings.

Votes have been locked in for months. There really arent many undecideds; just people unwilling to admit.

So there wont be huge swings in the polls unless pollsters play with the makeup of who they expect to turn out. Which they may do to spice things up a bit.




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