Mamdani Leads Cuomo Head-to-Head, With a Turnout Twist [View all]

Mr. Mamdani’s slight lead over Mr. Cuomo in a head-to-head matchup is among likely voters, but things would be different if everyone voted.

In fact, Mr. Cuomo, running as an independent, actually leads Mr. Mamdani among all registered voters, 46-45.

If you’re a regular reader of this newsletter, you probably know that Democrats have done better among the highly engaged voters who vote in low-turnout elections, but that’s not what Mr. Mamdani’s edge is about.

Mr. Mamdani, for instance, trails the hypothetical head-to-head matchup by six points among the survey respondents who voted in the 2022 midterm election. He trails by 10 points among those who voted in the 2021 primary. He does lead with the high-turnout 2024 general electorate, but only by one point — less than his four-point lead among likely voters in the poll. With this persistent disadvantage among those who have showed up in recent low-turnout elections, Mr. Mamdani would be expected to be at a relative disadvantage among likely voters in November.



https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/upshot/poll-nyc-mamdani-cuomo.html