Texas

I understand that the author is talking about the presidential level, but she also includes 2018 and 2022, which weren't presidential years. The outlook looks pretty rosy if one does some heavy cherry-picking.

Allred has a much better chance of beating Cruz than Harris has in beating Trump. The main problem here in Texas for Democrats is that turnout is poor, particularly in areas that we desperately need if we're going to win a statewide race. There also seems to still be an inherent edge for the GOP in the size of their voting base, but it's difficult to know for sure because TX doesn't have registration by party.

Texas will more than likely turn blue, but it may take longer than many assume. We're doing everything we can to make it happen.

An increase from 51% to 55% may not sound like much, but it's actually a massive increase in a state that does all it can to discourage voting. Mail-in voting is strictly limited and unavailable to most voters, and polling locations can be few and far between. All by GOP design, of course. Even in blue areas, Abbott, Paxton, et al, file lawsuits limiting local control of elections and polling places.