Wisconsin

I always say if you ask twenty people why they voted the way they did, you'd get twenty different responses.

- Power of the incumbency. If people think things are good, why change? Also, familiarity of the candidate.
- Johnson ran a ton of ads. He set the narrative.
- Racist tone of some of the ads.
- Barnes didn't fight back against accusations connecting him to defund the police.
- Resume. What has Barnes accomplished since college?
- Personal finance issues. It made Barnes look like he wasn't on top of things.
on edit - Lower voter turnout in Milwaukee. Much lower than 2018. The reason why Dems picked Barnes over Lazry in the primary was to energize the Milwaukee base, which turns out didn't happen.

Prior to 2010, Wisconsin was well known as a ticket-splitting state.