Democrats

Start with Landsman...I like him but I think he's going to have some challenges but If OH-1 really absorbs the city, I think Chabot is toast.

First, he wasn't a barn burner in the 2017 Cincy City Council race, coming in 6th out of a "pick 9" field. In 2021, he got about the same vote total but may have jumped a little in the rank...just hard to tell with 20+ candidates and a BOE website that's not built to understand. Net, I'd say his city popularity is "just ok". But he is a Dem and in a head to head with Chabot, he'll do well in the city.

Second, he's going to be tarnished a little in the 'burbs by the city/county spats that have been around for a long time. Cranley (recent termed out Cincinnati mayor who just lost the Gov primary to Whaley) had a lot of animosity for the county on things ranging from the street car to the water/sewer district to the general mass transport system. Seems like there was always some dust up. That said, a lot of the inner burbs will be Dem because that's what they are.

Switch to the map...when I voted yesterday, there was a notice that the maps are not finalized so the congressional primary races were not going to be counted. So who knows.

Right now, Wenstrup's district (OH-2) reaches from south central Ohio on the east and reaches into the minority communities on Cincinnati's northwest side. If you want to see who lives where in Cincinnati, just look at how OH-1 and OH-2 lines run...Chabot got all the white neighborhoods from the Ind/Ohio state line through his stronghold on the west side of Cincinnati all the up into the northeast suburbs of Mason and Lebanon. Wenstrup got all the minority communities that could be diluted with the strong Trump counties out to Chillicothe. It's a f'ing mess.

IF OH-1 ends up losing it's reach up into the Mason/Lebanon area and replaces it with Cincinnati - I think Chabot is done. Not so much on Landsman's strength but on the fact that such a huge slug of Cincinnati has hated Chabot for at least 5 election cycles but he hasn't been on their ballot. A lot of OH-2 folks in Cincinnati know they're wasting their time voting because it's so gerrymandered but give them a chance to put Steve on the street and I think they'll be all over it.

This...from a guy who's in OH-2 by no more than a solid 5-iron with the wind. To paraphrase "I can see it (OH-1) from my back porch".