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progree

(12,403 posts)
4. Thanks 😊. Well, I won't say "accurate", but they still could be honest in the sense that the bureaucrats are
Wed Sep 24, 2025, 12:00 AM
Sep 24

grinding the numbers systematically the same way they always have (or for years and years anyway), so at least they are comparable to previous numbers. Maybe that's kind of an extended definition of honesty, but it's the world we live in

One reason for the quotes around "accurate", aside from statistical sampling error that is always present --

House prices, mortgage costs, cost of home insurance, property taxes, home maintenance and other costs of owning a home are not included in the CPI. Instead they use something called "owners' equivalent rent" -- where they ask the owners what they think they could rent their house for if they moved out. This is a proxy for the foregone rent that homeowners lose by occupying their house.

Specifically on house prices, they consider a house an investment rather than a consumption item. When a house goes up in value and sells for $100k more, the owner gains $100k more, while the buyer pays $100k more, so it's a wash, doncha know? Well, if the former owner now buys an equivalent home, they pay $100k more so they really haven't gained anything in that scenario.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm

As for the PCE, I haven't looked into it, but I think it's much the same re: home ownership costs. Although one thing I read is that shelter has about twice the weighting in the core CPI than in the core PCE.

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