September CPI preview: Inflation seen holding firm near 3% as tariffs complicate Fed's path

Allie Canal • Senior Reporter
Thu, October 23, 2025 at 3:21 PM EDT 3 min read

September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show inflation holding stubbornly around 3%, underscoring how tariffs and service-sector stickiness continue to complicate the Federal Reserve's path toward its 2% target.

The report, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, was delayed by the ongoing government shutdown. It marks the first major piece of federal economic data since the shutdown began — now the second-longest in US history with no end in sight.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month over month, matching August's pace, and 3.1% year over year — the highest since May and above the 12-month average of 2.7%.

"Core" CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to climb 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, unchanged from August.

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