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bucolic_frolic

(50,324 posts)
2. Banks are deficient in liquidity because they lent at puny interest rates
Tue Mar 21, 2023, 07:06 PM
Mar 2023

In order to make money, banks have to raise loan rates fast to make loans more profitable and to attract capital. And there are fewer borrowers at high rates. So banks are part of the contraction of credit, and part of the liquidity problem. Banks fail because of liquidity. There may be teeterings for a few months. The Fed is fighting inflation by contracting balance sheets by selling bonds at higher rates, and also providing more liquidity to banks so they don't fail, which is the exact opposite of the contraction they already began. The medicine works but it must be mixed with anti-medicine so the whole thing doesn't implode. Banks are top-heavy with T-Bonds and those are not the same as liquidity. They are capital, but they are not liquidity that can be loaned out.

Count me as seeing quite the recession ahead. I remember 10 of the last 9 recessions, and in every one some major blue chip stocks were trading at some point under $10. Citigroup, Chrysler in it's heyday revival, Best Buy, Nike. I do remember AAPL at $28. My list of vulnerables? Well $10 is not $10 like it was 20 years ago, but INTC, UBER, are on radar. So maybe $20.

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