Yahoo Finance

November jobs report to test soft landing narrative

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Thu, Dec 7, 2023, 4:32 PM EST 3 min read

The November jobs report is set for release Friday morning and is expected to show a reacceleration in job growth after worker strikes impacted the October report.

The monthly labor report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 185,000 in November while the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.9% from the previous month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In October, the US economy added 150,000 jobs while unemployment ticked up to 3.9%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +185,000 vs. +150,000 previously

• Unemployment rate: 3.9% vs. 3.9% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.0% vs. +4.1% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 vs. 34.4 previously

The report will serve as a test for the stock market. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates and are widely expecting rate cuts in 2024. Much of that thesis is based on the labor market normalizing from its pandemic boom and inflation slowing. If the report helps reinforce that narrative, it could lift equities.

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Recent data this week showed signs of cooling in the labor market. On Tuesday, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, revealed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed workers fell to 1.34, its lowest reading since August 2021.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

2 days ago

An Ominous Sign for Friday's Jobs Report

By David Harrison, Reporter

U.S. service sector activity picked up slightly in November but employers pared back hiring, according to a survey of business purchasing managers released Tuesday by S&P Global.

Employment rose at the weakest pace since October 2022 with many firms saying they slowed hiring to cut costs.

The surveys could point to a weaker hiring number for November when the Labor Department releases its closely-watched employment report Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see payrolls rising by 190,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%.

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U.S. PMI Composite refuses to budge in November

Dec. 05, 2023 9:47 AM ET By: Max Gottlich, SA News Editor

November S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite (Final) came in at 50.7, unchanged from the flash estimate and the October reading.

With the index above 50, business activity expanded modestly, reflecting slight growth at manufacturers and service providers.

"Despite a renewed contraction in manufacturing new orders, a return to growth in the service sector drove the latest rise in new business, ending a three-month sequence of decline," S&P Global said.

Services PMI: 50.8 vs. 50.8 initial estimate and 50.6 in October.

"While service sector businesses continued to report further output gains in November, growth remains considerably weaker than seen earlier in the year, and forward-looking indicators point to growth slowing in the months ahead," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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