Economy

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 5.4 points in January to 104.1 (1985=100). December’s reading was revised up by 4.8 points to 109.5 but was still down 3.3 points from the previous month. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell sharply in January, dropping 9.7 points to 134.3. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 2.6 points to 83.9, but remained above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was January 20, 2025.

“Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month, but still remained in that range, even if in the lower part,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.”

By age group, January’s fall in confidence was led by consumers under 55 years old. Consumers aged 55+ saw a small uptick in confidence. By income group, the sharpest decline in confidence was seen in households earning over $125K, while consumers at the bottom of the income range reported the strongest gains. The confidence gap between the top income groups and those making between $75K and $100K narrowed.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 71.1 in January 2025 from a preliminary of 73.2 and compared with 74 in December. The gauge for expectations was revised down to 69.3 from 70.2 and the current conditions subindex was revised lower to 74 from 77.9. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year were unchanged at 3.3% (vs 2.8% in December), and the 5-year outlook was revised down to 3.2% from 3.3% (vs 3% in December). less
2025-01-24