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In reply to the discussion: The famous Fukushima radioactive tuna fish and all of the other fish and bivalves in the sea. [View all]NNadir
(36,578 posts)9. You are aware, are you not, that the Danes for years, kept an open database on the performance of every...
...wind turbine, operating and decommissioned in their offshore oil and gas drilling hellhole of a country?
They stopped updating it when it became clear that their systems were unreliable and didn't last. The average lifetime before decommissioning for those decommissioned was a little over 17 years.
Again, in case any so called "renewable energy" apologist missed it, I analyzed this data sometime back in this space.
A Commentary on Failure, Delusion and Faith: Danish Data on Big Wind Turbines and Their Lifetimes.
I'm perfectly happy with the level of detail I provided in that post, and a the risk of being called rude by stating something called "truth," I provide a few excerpts of that post, of which I am proud:
To understand the average lifetime of wind turbines, it is almost certainly better to look at those that have been decommissioned, those listed in the the afmeldte, "decommissioned" tab. Denmark has built 9,740 turbines and decommissioned 3,444 of them, roughly 35% in "percent talk." The average age of decommissioned wind turbines is 17 years and 317 days, slightly longer than the 2018 figure I calculated back then, which was 17 years and 283 days, an improvement of a whopping 34 days...
...There are 1,230 commissioned wind turbines in Denmark that are larger than 2000 kW (2MW). There are 40 decommissioned wind turbines in Denmark that are larger than 2000 kW (2MW).
There are commissioned two wind turbines in this class that have operated for more than 20 years, both have a power rating of 2300 kW, 2.3 MW. One, the oldest in the set, is a prototype, a turbine located at Ikast-Brande. It's not performing well. If one takes the average of its two highest years of energy production, and compares it to the most recent complete year of data, that of 2021, one can calculate that in 2021 it produced just 36.01% (in "percent talk" ) of the average of its two best years.
Another commissioned large wind turbine, an 8600 kW (8.5 MW) wind turbine listed as commissioned on October 5, 2018, the turbine at Thistead, produced 23,031,560 kWh of electricity in 2019, 24,986,470 kWh of electricity in 2020, and 6,161,830 kWh in 2021, having apparently failed in the latter year. It's produced zero energy in all of 2022 thus far. The capacity utilization of this turbine was thus 30.55% in 2019, 33.14% in 2020, 8.17% in 2021 and 0.00% as of this writing in 2022. Over it's lifetime, through March 30, 2022 - the date this version of the Master Register ends - the capacity utilization of this broke down "commissioned" turbine operated, its overall capacity utilization was 20.6%. If it has not been repaired as of July 17, 2022 - if it ever will be - it's capacity utilization will have fallen to 19.0%.
The largest commissioned wind turbine listed is the 14000 kW unit also at Thistead. It was commissioned on December 9, 2021, but still has not produced a single Joule of energy.
Of the 1,230 commissioned wind turbines larger than 2MW, only 471 have operated for more than 10 years. So there is no data to support that they will last more than 20 years other than the two 2300 kW (2.3MW) turbines, which may or may not prove to be outliers, to support a handwaving assertion that agrees with the statement of the antinuke that because of the putative "simple concept" that each generation of windmills improves on the previous - in operational efficiency and durability.
...There are 1,230 commissioned wind turbines in Denmark that are larger than 2000 kW (2MW). There are 40 decommissioned wind turbines in Denmark that are larger than 2000 kW (2MW).
There are commissioned two wind turbines in this class that have operated for more than 20 years, both have a power rating of 2300 kW, 2.3 MW. One, the oldest in the set, is a prototype, a turbine located at Ikast-Brande. It's not performing well. If one takes the average of its two highest years of energy production, and compares it to the most recent complete year of data, that of 2021, one can calculate that in 2021 it produced just 36.01% (in "percent talk" ) of the average of its two best years.
Another commissioned large wind turbine, an 8600 kW (8.5 MW) wind turbine listed as commissioned on October 5, 2018, the turbine at Thistead, produced 23,031,560 kWh of electricity in 2019, 24,986,470 kWh of electricity in 2020, and 6,161,830 kWh in 2021, having apparently failed in the latter year. It's produced zero energy in all of 2022 thus far. The capacity utilization of this turbine was thus 30.55% in 2019, 33.14% in 2020, 8.17% in 2021 and 0.00% as of this writing in 2022. Over it's lifetime, through March 30, 2022 - the date this version of the Master Register ends - the capacity utilization of this broke down "commissioned" turbine operated, its overall capacity utilization was 20.6%. If it has not been repaired as of July 17, 2022 - if it ever will be - it's capacity utilization will have fallen to 19.0%.
The largest commissioned wind turbine listed is the 14000 kW unit also at Thistead. It was commissioned on December 9, 2021, but still has not produced a single Joule of energy.
Of the 1,230 commissioned wind turbines larger than 2MW, only 471 have operated for more than 10 years. So there is no data to support that they will last more than 20 years other than the two 2300 kW (2.3MW) turbines, which may or may not prove to be outliers, to support a handwaving assertion that agrees with the statement of the antinuke that because of the putative "simple concept" that each generation of windmills improves on the previous - in operational efficiency and durability.
It is unsurprising to me to see for me to see someone working in the fossil fuel dependent wind industry - one showing distain for engineers with a passion for calling bullshit, um, bullshit - in denial about the death toll associated with fossil fuels.
This, in my view, is the result of the fact that the wind industry requires fossil fuels to operate.
Expressing contempt for engineers as being, um, "too rude" strikes me as the inability to understand the frustration of engineers when confronted with denial, whether that denial is in the form of denying the vast death toll produced by the combustion of fossil fuels - on which the useless wind industry depends - or denying the reality of engineering realities to the engineer reporting them.
You know, in my lifetime, I may have poured through thousands of graduate theses at both the Ph.D. level and Master's level. These theses are definitely an underutilized resource. Most of them are highly literate, and certainly more literate than much of what I see here, including from those defending the indefensible, a cranky bunch, who make specious generalized attacks without bothering to offer any reference for their claims.
Many of my engineering and science posts on this website, by contrast, are based on references to the primary scientific literature, as is the OP in this thread.
Hatred for scientists and engineers is becoming increasingly prevalent in this country; a scientific superpower is being decimated. As for individuals here at DU participating, it is happily not all that prevalent, but we can see that examples here are not completely absent.
If any apologists for the so called "renewable energy" scam are here to claim that the trillions of dollars spent to trash wilderness by industrializing it for wind farms has had any effect on the use of fossil fuels or the rate of accumulation of dangerous fossil fuel waste, they can easily be dismissed by pointing to something called "numbers."
Here for instance, not that the apologists for the fossil fuel dependent wind industry give a rat's ass, is my recent analysis of the situation with respect to the concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide, about which, I know, the wind industry couldn't care less, except for trying to pawn off their wilderness destroying junk:
New Weekly CO2 Concentration Record Set at the Mauna Loa Observatory, 430.86 ppm
All of the top 50 highest comparators in week to week comparisons with that of ten years earlier have taken place since 2020. Of the top 50 such data points, the 10 highest have occurred since January 1st 2024. Overall, 15 of the top 50 occurred in 2025, which of course is not done yet. All of the top 50 such readings have taken place in this decade, 29 of them in 2024.
There is a lot of statistical noise in these readings. Week 13 of 2025 for instance, was anomalous given that it was one of the now rare readings to be less than 1.00 ppm higher than Week 13 of 2024, 0.94 ppm higher to be precise. This kind of event is relatively rare in these times, the last time having occurred in 2023 in week 7 of that year. In 1975, the first year available as data at the Mauna Loa observatory, 44% of the readings were lower than 1.00 ppm compared to the previous year.
Because of statistical noise, in my spreadsheet I keep a 52 week running average of the week to week comparators with those of ten years earlier. Five weeks ago, week 12 of 2025, this running average hit 26.00 ppm for the first time. As of week 18, it is now 26.12 ppm/10 years. This is the highest value ever obtained.
There is a lot of statistical noise in these readings. Week 13 of 2025 for instance, was anomalous given that it was one of the now rare readings to be less than 1.00 ppm higher than Week 13 of 2024, 0.94 ppm higher to be precise. This kind of event is relatively rare in these times, the last time having occurred in 2023 in week 7 of that year. In 1975, the first year available as data at the Mauna Loa observatory, 44% of the readings were lower than 1.00 ppm compared to the previous year.
Because of statistical noise, in my spreadsheet I keep a 52 week running average of the week to week comparators with those of ten years earlier. Five weeks ago, week 12 of 2025, this running average hit 26.00 ppm for the first time. As of week 18, it is now 26.12 ppm/10 years. This is the highest value ever obtained.
It's depressing to note that months later that data point for the 52 week running average for 10 year increases reported in week 18 was 26.12 has reached, as of the week beginning September 7, 2025, week 36, 26.40 ppm/10 years.
As for the question as to whether nuclear plants require maintenance, of course they do. This is certainly not unique to any energy industry, dirty plants in industries like the dangerous natural gas that backs up wind turbines, coal plants, oil refineries, cars, trucks, and trains. Is this surprising somehow? Occasionally nuclear reactors need complete refurbishing, as is the case with the beautiful Bruce and Darlington CANDU reactors in Canada that have been saving lives since the 20th century.
To wit:
... Facing an impending power shortage, the provincial government's Ontario Power Authority in October 2005 agreed with Bruce Power to refurbish its oldest Bruce A reactors. Unit 2 had been laid up in 1995 due to a maintenance accident in which lead contaminated the core. Unit 1 was laid up along with the four Pickering A units at the end of 1997, to allow operational focus on newer plants. Their operational lifetimes were extended by 25 years. Refurbishment of units 1&2 followed units 3&4 being returned to service by 2004 and was completed in 2012.
About eight years after returning to service, unit 3 had a C$300 million upgrade over November 2011 to May 2012 to extend its operating lifetime by ten years, and unit 4 had a similar life-extending upgrade in 2012. Replacement of low-pressure turbines was completed following the reactor refurbishments, at a cost of over $200 million per unit.
UK-based AMEC managed Bruce A work. The whole project was expected to cost C$5.25 billion, with C$2.75 billion for units 1&2, C$1.15 billion for unit 3 and $1.35 billion for unit 4. Early in 2008, with C$2 billion spent, it was announced that the cost of unit 1&2 refurbishment would be about C$3 billion, which late in 2010 was increased to C$4.8 billion. The installation of new calandria tubes was completed in November 2010. In July 2012 unit 1 was authorized to restart, and it was grid-connected in September. Unit 2 started up in March 2012 and came back on line in October, after sorting out a generator problem. They returned to commercial operation by October and November 2012 respectively...
...Following the Ontario 2013 Long-Term Energy Plan, in December 2015 Bruce Power and the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO)* agreed on long-term sales of 6300 MWe from Bruce, enabling a further major refurbishment programme to extend the operating lifetimes of units 3-8 by up to 35 years. From 2016 Bruce Power will receive C$65.73/MWh for all output, adjusted according to consumer price index. The six reactor refurbishments were expected to cost C$13 billion (in 2014 C$) from 2020 to 2033 and include steam generator and calandria tube replacement. In addition, C$5 billion would be spent on other lifetime extension or asset management work from 2016 to 2053, $2.3 billion of these sums before 2020...
About eight years after returning to service, unit 3 had a C$300 million upgrade over November 2011 to May 2012 to extend its operating lifetime by ten years, and unit 4 had a similar life-extending upgrade in 2012. Replacement of low-pressure turbines was completed following the reactor refurbishments, at a cost of over $200 million per unit.
UK-based AMEC managed Bruce A work. The whole project was expected to cost C$5.25 billion, with C$2.75 billion for units 1&2, C$1.15 billion for unit 3 and $1.35 billion for unit 4. Early in 2008, with C$2 billion spent, it was announced that the cost of unit 1&2 refurbishment would be about C$3 billion, which late in 2010 was increased to C$4.8 billion. The installation of new calandria tubes was completed in November 2010. In July 2012 unit 1 was authorized to restart, and it was grid-connected in September. Unit 2 started up in March 2012 and came back on line in October, after sorting out a generator problem. They returned to commercial operation by October and November 2012 respectively...
...Following the Ontario 2013 Long-Term Energy Plan, in December 2015 Bruce Power and the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO)* agreed on long-term sales of 6300 MWe from Bruce, enabling a further major refurbishment programme to extend the operating lifetimes of units 3-8 by up to 35 years. From 2016 Bruce Power will receive C$65.73/MWh for all output, adjusted according to consumer price index. The six reactor refurbishments were expected to cost C$13 billion (in 2014 C$) from 2020 to 2033 and include steam generator and calandria tube replacement. In addition, C$5 billion would be spent on other lifetime extension or asset management work from 2016 to 2053, $2.3 billion of these sums before 2020...
...and so on...
Bruce 2, first connected to the grid in 1976, operated in 2024 at 100% capacity utilization, producing 7186 GWh (25.87 Petajoules) of electricity in a single building. There isn't a wind turbine on this planet that operated for a year at 100% capacity utilization for a year, which doesn't stop the wind industry from reporting their crappy stuff in units of peak power, power levels they almost never obtain, and if they do, for periods of minutes, not years.
The refurbishment program of CANDU reactors - in my view some of the most important reactors in the world owing to their potential for thermal breeding - means that reactors that connected to the grid in the 1970's and 1980's will be saving lives well into the 21st century. This will be true irrespective of whether representatives of the useless fossil fuel coddling and dependent wind industry question the scientific fact that air pollution kills people.
The noted climate scientist Jim Hansen made a nice calculation in 2013 about how many lives were saved from air pollution by nuclear energy by the way.
It's here:
Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power (Pushker A. Kharecha* and James E. Hansen Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (9), pp 48894895)
The above note is called a "reference," as distinct from handwaving and blank assertions about, let's say wonderful wind turbines in Iowa that last forever. I do hope that providing references to facts, as Dr. Hansen clearly does in his paper in my view, isn't considered "rude," but if it is, well, I can't help it.
As for the claim that "nobody cares about," I would call into question whether the many nice notes I've received in my 22 years at DU advocating for nuclear energy and, occasionally commenting on other scientific issues connected with my career, and, after a time, my practice of denigrating the expensive fossil fuel dependent and useless so called "renewable energy" industry, many people have written me very nice notes about my work here. I certainly didn't ask anyone to do so, and I'm not here seeking either praise or condemnation. I am merely commenting on my views on the important issue of extreme global heating. I have people who appreciate my efforts, and I am assured, in spite of anyone asserting otherwise, that they are not "nobodies."
I'm fully aware that there are airheads all over the world who claim to speak for "everyone." Usually they're uninteresting people with weak minds and in some cases, for example, the orange pedophile in the White House, dangerous people. I would characterize anyone coddling fossil fuels dangerous, but that's just my opinion.
If someone finds stating one's opinions, supported by references and the evocation of facts "rude" that's not my problem. In my view, it's their problem.
In this vein, let me offer another analogy that I often use when I am confronted with complaints about the statement of facts being done in a "rude" way.
A guy is walking down the street near a railroad track, and he sees someone walking on the tracks and a train approaching. He yells out "Hey asshole! Get off the track! A fucking train is coming!!!"
The person walking on the tracks calls back, "Ask me nicely and I'll consider it."
One can only shake one's head in disbelief.
The planet is burning. The trillions of dollars squandered on wind energy in the last 10 years has done nothing, zero, zip, to address this outcome. In fact, the wind industry can't even keep up with the increases in fossil fuel use if one uses units of energy in lieu of effectively lying by pointing to peak power. I certainly feel no compunction to be nice about it, especially to people defending the indefensible fossil fuel dependent wind industry.
My son and his serious girlfriend are both rising nuclear engineers nearing the completion of their Ph.Ds. They are doing what they are doing in hopes of saving what is left to be saved, which is less and less by the hour. They are spectacularly disinterested in malcontents confusing themselves with grammarians, but I'm sure my son and his girlfriend both know that they will encounter in their careers, people who get angry with them, disparage them, and demean them for stating the truth.
It goes with the territory. It's entirely unsurprising to me and it won't be to them.
I trust you're having a swell day out there in those wind industrial parks. Try not to breath in any aerosol plastics spallated from those magical wind turbine blades when the wind is blowing.
Have a wonderful evening as well.
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The famous Fukushima radioactive tuna fish and all of the other fish and bivalves in the sea. [View all]
NNadir
Friday
OP
The reference for the death toll I attach to antinukism is from one of the most prominent medical journals...
NNadir
Saturday
#5
You are aware, are you not, that the Danes for years, kept an open database on the performance of every...
NNadir
3 hrs ago
#9