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paleotn

(21,112 posts)
3. Bad economics. The race to reduce oil sand cost per barrel.
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 08:21 AM
Saturday

Oil sands have always been one of the most expensive ways to extract petroleum and un-competitive for most of my lifetime. Cost per barrel was $80 to $100 back in the early 20 teens. When global oil prices dip below that breakeven point, oil sands are a money loser. So, the impetus has been to get production costs down as much as possible through improved technology and headcount reductions. Not surprisingly, they have to automate the hell out of production to get it to pay.

While Alberta may be a boom provence early on, that isn't going to play out even medium term. So all those people who've moved to Edmonton, Calgary and Fort McMurray will be moving elsewhere. Add the fact that global oil consumption is expected to flatten and perhaps decline in the next decade, I sometimes wonder why producers even bother. Fracking is generally a hell of a lot cheaper and less environmentally damaging in comparison to oil sand extraction. That's hard to believe, but oil sands are a ginormously nasty business and every Canadian should be ashamed. Particularly when their entire country catches fire every damn Summer. The irony isn't lost on me.

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