Foreign Affairs

But Xi has plenty of his own problems and is certainly focused on his desire for Taiwan and maintaining his own increasingly moribund and troubled domestic economy. The Ukraine war, in addition to focusing much Western attention away from China, also is absorbing a lot of weaponry and other military resources that would be available to support Taiwan if Xi ever pulls the trigger on an invasion. If you look at the gaming scenarios of a full on Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force, unless Taiwan and the US just roll over, it will be a blood bath on both sides. While our military tech and training gives us an edge, China's larger numbers in ships, aircraft and missiles operating close to home, the losses in ships, aircraft and personnel will be staggering for both sides.

One also has to worry that should China pull that trigger, there will never be a better time for North Korea to attack South Korea and for Putin to take a shot at the Baltic States. How to go from zero to World War 3 in very short order.