Belarusian Troops Rushing to the Border in Thousands! - RFU News [View all]

Today, the biggest news comes from Belarus.

Here, President Alexander Lukashenko has openly warned his population to prepare for war, with new brigades being mobilized on the border and the groundwork being laid for a rapid mobilization. Concrete moves on the ground are matching this warning, as upcoming military exercises might once again lay the groundwork for two new major escalations.

In his television address, Lukashenko told Belarusians to prepare for war and difficult times ahead, pushing through legal amendments that would not only allow martial law but also authorize full-scale mobilization far more easily. These changes should not be underestimated, and could place tens of thousands of Belarusian troops on Ukraine’s northern border within days. Additionally, Belarus is forming a new full special operations brigade in Homel within striking distance of Ukraine’s northern flank. The brigade is set to receive Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missiles alongside advanced air defense and reconnaissance systems, supplementing the existing Iskander launchers in the region, giving the unit long-range and even nuclear strike capabilities.

If Belarus enters the conflict, two main scenarios are in play: the first would be a direct invasion of western Ukraine by opening a northern front. Russian and Belarusian forces could attempt to sever Ukraine’s land supply routes from Poland and other NATO states, cutting off the steady flow of Western arms and isolating Ukrainian troops in the east. Alternatively, a push towards Chernihiv could open another major front along the only 60 kilometer highway to the city, a route Russia took in 2022 and failed, but might attempt again with Belarusian reinforcements and Ukrainian forces stretched thin. Northern Ukraine’s largely forested terrain would allow Belarusian special forces to operate with greater effectiveness, making the news brigade being formed on the border even more of a looming warning sign. Such an operation would be an extraordinary escalation, officially joining the war and striking deep into Ukrainian territory, forcing Ukraine to divert forces from the eastern front, and giving Moscow the potential to disrupt Western supplies for months.

The daring second scenario is an operation westwards towards the Suwalki Gap, the narrow stretch of land between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Capturing or threatening this corridor would link Russian forces in the Baltic to their ally in Minsk and split NATO’s eastern flank in two. Notably, the Russian reconnaissance drone that entered Lithuanian airspace and flew over Vilnius was later found crashed-landed at a Lithuanian army training ground, indicating targeted surveillance of military infrastructure. Officially, the drone was an unarmed Gerbera decoy, but its route simultaneously suggests deliberate reconnaissance of Lithuanian military sites in addition to escalating tensions with Russia’s Baltic neighbors.

Either of these scenarios might be closer than expected, with the Zapad 2025 military exercises between Russia and Belarus set for September. These drills have previously been used to disguise preparations for real operations, including the same Zapad series in late 2021, which laid the groundwork and infrastructure for the later full-scale invasion of Ukraine one month later. Reports already show redeployments to training areas that could double as a staging ground if orders are given.

The West understands the possibility of these scenarios, as Germany has redeployed Eurofighter jets to Poland, stationing them east of Warsaw to reinforce Nato’s air policing mission. Officials say the move is a direct response to the upcoming Zapad drills, intended to reinforce NATO’s presence in the air without escalating to a full-scale deployment. Meanwhile, Berlin closely monitors the situation, fully aware of how quickly an exercise could turn into a real incursion.

Overall, Belarus’s preparations mark the most serious escalation on Ukraine’s northern border in over 2 years. Lukashenko’s rhetoric, backed by new units, nuclear-capable systems, and sweeping legal changes, is setting the stage for open participation in the war. Whether the goal is to strike directly at Ukraine’s western lifelines or to challenge NATO in the Baltic, the attack could come suddenly and with the element of surprise. For NATO, it is a reminder that the next flashpoint may emerge not in the Donbas or the Black Sea, but in the forests and fields between Minsk, Kyiv, and Vilnius, where political developments are now rapidly being matched by military threats as well.