Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000 [View all]

https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/analysis-finds-true-pandemic-death-toll-is-much-higher-than-200000-in-us/

Analysis Finds True US Pandemic Death Toll Is Much Higher Than 200,000

BU researchers: number of pandemic-related deaths is 36 percent higher than reported, with disadvantaged communities hit even harder than thought

OCTOBER 5, 2020
MICHELLE SAMUELS

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced last week that the United States had passed a grim milestone: over 200,000 Americans have now died from COVID-19. But research from Boston University School of Public Health finds that the true number of losses could be much higher.

That analysis, available on medRxiv ahead of peer-reviewed publication, took a close look at the number of US deaths between February and September 2020 that are characterized as in excess of the number of deaths that would be expected in a normal year. Researchers discovered that for every 100 excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19, there were another 36 excess deaths—also likely caused by COVID-19, but in a less obvious manner.

BU researchers, who teamed up with collaborators from the University of Pennsylvania and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, found more of these additional deaths in US counties that have greater income inequality, high percentages of non-Hispanic Black residents, less home ownership, and high population density. The data suggest that higher mortality rates are inextricably linked with socioeconomic disadvantage and structural racism.

Looking at where the most excess deaths occured is a better measure of the pandemic’s disproportionate effect on communities than simply tallying up the total number of COVID-19–related deaths, according to study lead author Andrew Stokes, a BU School of Public Health assistant professor of global health. “Excess deaths include COVID deaths that were ascribed to other causes, as well as the indirect consequences of the pandemic on society,” he says.

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