Baseball

The plateaus you speak of are far more often at a performance level less than their prior to age 29 accomplishments.

I'm willing to spend a lot of cash on a bet that Ohtani will not produce the 10.05 WAR in either 2024 or 2025 that he produced in 2023. Regression toward the mean meets arm injury baby!

Also, while it may be old data, a James study from an Abstract pointed out that 85% of free agent signings had a performance decline in the year they signed big contracts.

Finally, nothing in baseball happens in a vacuum. According to the transaction wire even today, I see a NL team making counter moves to negate left-handed power.