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2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

1. Some thoughts

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:35 PM

Aug 2016

The drift model is obviously more conservative (from a Democratic perspective) than the "election now" model. This is probably due to the fact that states with a strong partisan R lean show less polling variance than even states with a strong partisan D lean. I suspect it is harder to change an R states' mind than it is to change a D states' mind, so to speak.

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Election Model Update [View all] Loki Liesmith Aug 2016 OP

Some thoughts Loki Liesmith Aug 2016 #1