8/11/12-New Poll: Obama's lead over Romney widens. [View all]

Obama Widens Lead Over Romney


Published on Saturday, 11 August 2012 09:12
Written by Administrator

Hits: 2012

In the latest Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll, President Obama's lead over Governor Romney widens from 1-point in July to 7-points in August. Romney loses ground among independents, men, and suburban voters.


Obama 46%
Romney 39%


Interesting crosstabs:

Northeast 55% to 33%
Midwest 46% to 38%
South 40% to 43%
West 51% to 41%

Obama leads in ever region of the country except the South were he trails by just 3.

White 39% to 48%
Black 88% to 1%
Hispanic 70% to 19%

In the poll Obama had only 88% of the black vote (That is very likely to go up).

He had 39% of the white vote. With 12% of the white vote unsure, that would likely project to 42-43% of the white vote on election day. That is about where he was in 2008 (44%). That is a good number for a Democrat and more than enough to win re-election

He had 70% of the Hispanic vote. In 2008 Obama received 67% of the vote Nationally. On election day Obama could have 75% of the Hispanic vote. Wow!


Full poll results at link:
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/obama-widens-lead-over-romney


Here are the last 4 National polls which were all conducted this week.

8/11- IBD/CSM/TIPP-Obama +7
8/9- CNN- Obama +7
8/7- FOX- Obama +9
8/6- Reuters-Obama +7

Today is August 11th, 2012. The conventions are only weeks away. Folks, its not early anymore!

I don't know exactly when this race broke open Nationally. But the idea that this is currently a close race is factually untrue. Romney is behind. Numbers from this wide a variety of sources and this consistent don't lie.

There is no doubt, the Romney campaign has similar numbers.

I believe this is why they chose Paul Ryan as VP. They really needed to "shake up the race." They needed to throw down a wildcard. Under the current projection of this race, it was looking more like 2008, than 2004. Clearly the Romney campaign concluded that a "safe pick" like Rob Portman or Tim Pawlenty was not going to be enough to change the dynamic of this race. Its interesting that they sacrificed a "2 point bump" in Ohio with Portman to try and shake things up on a National level. This shows Romney is behind everywhere. And trailing in Ohio is only one of his current problems.




Secondly, can the political pundits stop with the false storyline that this is a close election?

It currently is not.

Not only does the President lead Nationally, his multiple route paths to 270 gives him an even greater advantage. Currently Nate Silver gives him about a 70% chance of reaching 270 on election day. In Presidential political terms, thats not a close race. No objective observer looks at the data at hand and determines this race is close. Only TV talking heads do.




Thirdly... the media was wrong. Barack Obama was right.

This "bump" for Obama is not related to good economic news. It is not related to a war or overseas National triumph. No party has had a convention yet. This separation is due entirely to the public learning more about Bain and Romney refusing to release his taxes. Any person going forward who argues that Romney's time at Bain or his taxes are not issues that sway voters, simply is not qualified to speak regarding the issue. You can't refute evidence this overwhelming and one-sided.



When you look at all of the information, its real easy to see why Paul Ryan was chosen today. Mitt Romney is trying to do what John McCain did 4 years ago, but in a more careful, responsible way.