2016 Postmortem

Based on the most recent census data I could find, only about 66% of the US population is white, non-hispanic. Black, Hispanic and other minority votes are going Democratic in droves, and the current rightwing policies of the GOP are pushing them out of the tent just as fast as they can go. So we have about 80-90% of the non-white vote for the foreseeable future.

Obama is also killing Romney/Ryan with women voters. Last numbers that I saw showed Obama leading by more than 20 percentage points, and I don't think that comes as a surprise (Forced Vaginal Ultrasounds, anyone?). And the Democrats are also doing fabulously well among younger voters, who tend to be far more socially progressive than their parents and grandparents.

When you peel off women and younger voters (and I suppose you could also peel off elderly voters now that Paul Ryan is on the ticket), the core of the GOP boils down to middle-aged white men, and that's less than 20% of the electorate. There's simply no way any Republican can win enough of those votes to win an election.

So if you're wondering why the GOP is pursuing a furious program of voter suppression, now you know.