Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Polls are disastrous for Sanders...Today's Real Clear Politics [View all]MineralMan
(150,334 posts)He seems to want to press on, in hopes of having some clout at the convention, as he did in 2016. I don't think that's going to work, though, in 2020.
He's going to lose most primaries from now on massively, I believe. The voters have moved on. He is just banging his head against the ceiling that has always been there this year. It was masked by voters choosing other candidates in a multi-candidate race. Someone pointed out that 40% of the mail-in ballots in Washington state were for candidates other than Bernie and Biden. That will no longer be the case in upcoming primaries.
So, Sanders will get his 30-something percent, which is his ceiling, and Biden will get the rest. Actually, his ceiling is likely to drop below 30% if momentum holds for Joe.
How long will Sanders stick to it? I don't know. Maybe up to the beginning of the convention. I fully expect Biden to have a majority of pledged delegates by then. Further, delegates pledged to candidates no longer running may switch to Biden on the first ballot, which would make his majority even larger. I'm not quite sure what the convention rules will be for delegates pledged to withdrawn candidates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden