The Way Forward

1. Four will be tough. There are golden pickup opportunities in NC and Maine. Ohio, if Sherrod runs and Trump is unpopular, we have a shot, but it's probably 50/50 at best. Anywhere else would take a pretty noticeable upset to win.

2. NC and Maine

3. Ossoff is really the only one, and that's if Kemp runs. But in a blue midterm, Ossoff should still be a soft favorite.

4. Texas and Florida, definitely. Potentially Iowa as well, it looks tempting, but it's hard to see it swinging far enough left to flip unless Trump's tariff's absolutely decimate farmers.