No Kings 2 Has No Downside, and Negligible Risk

Trump and his lackeys will bluster, and threaten, and smear everyone involved, but they are powerless in the face of massive non violent No Kings 2 nationwide protests. It is what they are least prepared to counter: a massive outpouring of non violent citizens converging in every corner of this vast nation; in small towns and major cities, rural and urban, red and blue, everywhere at once.

Trump can not manipulate the playing field when it encompasses the entire nation. He can not control the narrative when reality itself plays out mere miles away from where every American lives. Trump has his playbook of course but it wasn't written for an event like No Kings 2, and it can't be adapted to successfully respond to it.

Trump deploys federal agent provocateurs in targeted city blocks, be they in LA, Portland or Chicago, seeking to generate images of unrest with "rioters" "clashing" with "law enforcement officers." Then those premeditated, prefab images are spoon fed to his base through right wing broadcast and social media networks. Cities are said to be "burning down", though mothers stroll with their infants in baby carriages a mere block away. Most Americans live hundreds, if not thousands of miles away from where non violent activists are actually confronting ICE agents on the streets. There are relatively few eye witnesses to the truth as it really plays out.

Not so with No Kings 2. Though decidedly national in scope, 2500 distinct rallies will each be local in nature, near to where all Americans live and work. Each of the many millions of protesters who will be participating are personally known to another dozen or two friends, family members and acquaintances, who will be hearing directly from them about what actually went down. Regardless of whatever out of context footage FOX News or Newsmax tries to package for their viewers, virtually every local media outlet in the nation will be reporting live from their local scene themselves. And they will be reporting on massive peaceful protests in opposition to Trump's agenda.

Trump's proto-fascist forces do not have the capacity to simultaneously disrupt and/or intimidate millions of Americans gathering at one time in thousands of places throughout the entire nation. They know it and they won't even try They have no stomach for being outnumbered a hundred to one or more. That's why their strategy is to try to intimidate us in advance, to keep us from attending in the first place.

They are incapable of shaping the narrative on Saturday, even if they do manage to stage a few instances of supposed "conflict" and "civic unrest." They would stand out like a sore thumb against the backdrop of millions of peaceful protesters, obvious isolated instances of staged provocations. Will there be absolutely no risk to any protesters on Saturday? Of course not, there is always some risk. Back in the late 1950's and early 1960's, could Civil Rights leaders promise their followers that actively opposing racism came at no risk to those who did so? But where would our nation be today had risk adverse supporters of justice and human rights huddled at home behind locked doors rather than taking the fight for equality to the streets?

Compared to what they faced, the risk to anyone who attends a No Kings 2 event this Saturday is virtually non existent. The risk to any Trump goon who tries to disrupt our peaceful protests, on the other hand, will be high. Not because of any physical danger they could face at the hands of protesters. Our strength is in non-violence and we know it. The threat to the Right comes from the danger of being exposed to the nation in broad daylight for who they really are should they attempt to show their true colors on that day.. Let them try. we've got this.

Every time Trump thinks he scores "a win", he becomes ten times more toxic

...and immediately moves on to the next level exercising unchecked, unconstitutional control of every institution in our nation

In addition to all of the policy related reasons why Democrats can't give in on the government shutdown, THAT alone makes it essential for Democrats not to blink during this shutdown showdown, regardless of the cost..A Trump not humbled is a Trump emboldened.

Talk about poor messaging...

MAGA posing as highly concerned about all of the government functions people are being denied during a shutdown, while simultaneously threatening to permanently fire hundreds of thousands of government workers because Democrats supposedly are stopping them from doing their jobs now. Meanwhile they are holding back funding themselves from dozens of approved government projects to provide services in Blue states.

People know that Democrats believe in government. They know MAGA Republicans are intrinsically hostile to it unless they can not wield it as a weapon for partisan reasons. Republicans are reinforcing those opinions during this shutdown. The House is not even in session and won't be for a week.

At the same time the public long ago decided that Republicans can not be trusted to ensure the viability of their health care. People intuitively understand that Democrats are fighting FOR government when they demand the restoration of ACA subsidies that Republicans chose to leave our of their partisan budget. Republicans ended those subsides intentionally. People simply don't trust them when tell Democrats vote for our budget now and we'll consider your health needs later.

It's simple. Most Americans don't want chaos. And they know Republicans run Washington

On this or that stand Democrats may take, they may or may not win polling on that issue at the time, but the big picture is constant. The more chaos, the more unsettling changes, the more stress that Americans experience during the Trump regime, the more Americans become upset with it. That is true of the shutdown regardless of who most may blame for it after it finally ends. The Republican brand is Chaos. The Republican brand is uncertainty. The Republican brand is turbulence in our daily lives. Few beyond fanatics want that, but Republicans are seen as embracing it.

It is the Meta message that underlies everything else. And Republicans will pay in November if Democrats are resolute in not making the path forward for them easy in the interim.

The REASON we are fighting for ACA subsidies is because Republicans REFUSED to include them in their budget

That says virtually all that needs to be said about the Republicans and this government shutdown. Their "Big Beautiful Bill" was wildly unpopular but they rammed it down our throats anyway. The Obamacare subsidies and full Medicaid funding is overwhelming popular but Republicans insisted on taking all that away from us, so as to finance tax cuts for the rich.

Using "Reconciliation" rules, while controlling all branches of government, they passed their budget with the slimmest of partisan majorities. And now they want Democrats to give them the votes needed to "continue" and extend their monstrous budget priorities longer, at the expense of our literal health, while their service cuts and skyrocketing premiums start to cut deep.

They expect us to just roll over and play dead by just handing them the votes they need to literally kill Americans. Why the fuck should anyone trust Republicans to reverse the cuts they made later, when they literally went out of their way to make them in the first place? NOW is when Democrats have the leverage needed to save American lives. If Democrats fail to stand firm we will share in the responsibility for the thousands of deaths that will result. And that is exactly the way Republicans want it.

The last President to view half of Americans as the enemy was Jefferson Davis

Trump doesn't just think that way, he acts that way. It's not mere macho posturing to rebrand the Department of Defense the Department of War,. He plans to conquer his domestic opposition. We are barely 9 months into his four year term of office. At some point Martial Law is a virtual certainty.

Can the media please stop characterizing Trump's rule as "norms not being observed." There's been nothing remotely like this since the Civil War.

Open Letter to "Responsible" Republicans.

Fine. Go ahead. Assure your voters that you "agree with many of his policies" if you must, even if you don't. Pretend that the Federal Budget is riddled with fraud and abuse, and that no one will really suffer when Trump attacks it with a meat cleaver, if you believe that's what Trump expects of you. Smear millions of hard working patriotic Americans as next to useless dead weight whose federal jobs can be eliminated without adverse consequences, while your own constituents feel the pain. Act like you haven't noticed that extreme weather events have become as routine as your car's oil change as the words "Climate Change" are censored out of every government report. Repeat the mantra that wasteful spending alone causes deficits when any kid running a lemonade stand knows you can't just cut costs to turn a profit if you let your revenues dry up.

One can say of the above that it's all just politics as usual. In the broadest sense, perhaps. In that spirit, mischaracterize reality if you must. If you believe that the Republic needs you to remain in office that badly, I'm sure you can justify it to yourself. But here is where it stops being "politics as usual". It's the point at which the fabric of the Republic starts being ripped asunder. The precise point we now have reached.

We can disagree passionately about policies, about priorities, about politics itself, so long as we remain a "we". The last time a President reigned inside of America who thought millions of his countrymen were his enemies, his name was Jefferson Davis. There is no other apt comparison to how Donald Trump views his fellow Americans. Up to half of us he sees as "the enemy within." States he failed to carry in the last election are viewed as hostile entities whose leaders must be brought to their knees. That isn't just Trump's.state of mind. It's an active battle plan, complete with the deployment of the U.S. military into U.S. cities, and the commandeering of major previously approved federal programs withheld at his whim to punish any parts of America that oppose him

No other U.S. leader in living memory described his political adversaries as "hating America." Trump routinely proclaims if from the White House. It is the ultimate framing of "us" vs "them", and it sets the stage both for an escalation of political violence, and the imposition of "emergency measures" by Trump to quell any resistance, nonviolent activities included, to the further imposition of his personal rule.

Those of you who see yourselves as "responsible" Republicans, well you are. You are responsible for what is becoming of our nation. You are so by pretending that any of this is normal, that any of this is healthy. You are so through your silence, when clear strong voices are needed most There is no need to change political sides if you are comfortable as a Republican. Argue for the policies you support; it's the American way.

But don't forget your Oath of Allegiance, to One Nation, Under God, with Liberty and Justice to all. That isn't what Donald Trump believes in, and you know it. Does your ultimate allegiance belong to a cognitively failing narcissist, or to that oath which, no doubt, you have always proudly taken? Break the silence, for America.

Why Democrats will NOT suffer EVEN IF voters blame them for a Government shutdown

Over the years much ink and airtime has been spent by the media on the reoccurring question: which Party will be blamed by voters if the Federal Government gets shut down? If history is our guide the answer, at first glance, is obvious; it's the Republicans. A brief review of the three most recent long government shutdowns, including; 35 days between December of 2018 and January of 2019, 21 days between December of 1995 and January of 1996, and 16 days in October 2013, clearly indicate that Republicans overall lost "the blame game" when it came to those shutdowns. In hindsight, even leaders of the Republican Party agree with that assessment. Government shutdowns are extremely unpopular, and Republicans, historically, receive the bulk of the blame when they occur.

But what if this time is somehow different? What electoral disaster might await Democrats in 2026 if this time the public holds them accountable instead, should Democrats not deliver the needed number of votes in the Senate to pass the Republican authored budget bill, potentially leading to a prolonged shutdown? It's here that conventional wisdom goes awry. Republicans might have been blamed for prior shutdowns, but they were not punished , in the Congressional elections that followed them. It begs the obvious question: Of what significance is blame assigned if there are no adverse consequences as a result? Political pundits routinely predict that fallout from an unpopular government closure, will likely harm the chances of the political party blamed for that closure in the subsequent national election. History, however, fails to bear that out.

In the 1996 election, Clinton was returned to office, but the Congressional Republicans who had been blamed for the prior government shutdown, fared well also, even with the head of their ticket going down in defeat. Republicans maintained their recently won majorities in both houses of the United States Congress that year. Republicans picked up a net of two Senate seats, while Democrats picked up a net of three seats in the House of Representatives.

It is worth noting that as recently as four years prior, Democrats held strong majorities in both Houses of Congress. It was widely expected that Republicans would have trouble holding on to many of the seats that had newly swung to them in the 1994 midterms, but if anything they marginally strengthened their position in Congress instead. The Hoover Institute published an essay at the time with the heading: "The 1996 House Elections: Reaffirming the Conservative Trend" which began with the observation that "Before last November's election, the conventional wisdom was that Republicans would experience large losses in Congress." Clearly, they did not.
https://www.hoover.org/research/1996-house-elections-reaffirming-conservative-trend

Moving forward to the 2014 congressional elections, following the next prolonged Government Shutdown, the Republican Party actually wrested control of the Senate from the Democrats, gaining a net total of nine seats, giving them a 54–44 majority (with two Independents who caucused with the Democrats.) Republicans also expanded their majority in the House to historic levels, reaching 247 seats to the Democrats' 188. Having been blamed for the 2013 Government Shutdown proved not to be a significant handicap for Republicans that year either.

The 2020 election proved eerily similar to the 2016 election in that regard. Yes, Democrats won the White House, but highly anticipated wide scale Democratic wins in the House failed to materialize. Largely as a result of two run off races in Georgia which Democrats narrowly won, Democrats netted a gain of three Senate Seats. However heading into the 2020 election Republicans were defending 21 of their seats compared to just 12 for Democrats. And Democrats failed to win Senate races in Maine and North Carolina in that cycle, both states where they had been favored before election day.

The 2020 results in the House of Representatives were far bleaker for Democrats. Leading up to that election, Democrats were projected by many polls to expand their majority by up to 15 seats. While Democrats ultimately retained control of the House, Republicans picked up, 14 seats and the Democrats entered 2021 with only a narrow 222–213 House majority.

An analysis of the elections in 2020, 2014, and 1996 DOES NOT support a contention that somehow Republicans benefited in those years from being blamed for the Government shutdowns that preceded them. Clearly many other issues factored into the final results, BUT THAT PRECISELY IS THE POINT. Though pundits tend to gauge politics through a two year increment prism, that isn't how most voters view the world. What most upsets them today will likely be superseded by what most upsets them tomorrow, potentially dozens of times before the next major election rolls finally rolls around.

As deeply upsetting as a Government Shutdown may be for many at the time, the anger that one generates seems to subside over time after government reopens and most if not all of the federal government's normal functions are restored. I'm not saying that all resentments triggered by a shutdown dissipate, but they do recede as other more immediate issues come to the fore when election day grows near. We can speculate on why that is, but that's the way it seems to be.

Democrats should not let concerns over who might bear the blame if the federal government shuts down influence the choices they make as the current budget battle comes to a head. Most likely Republicans will be blamed, but even if not, that isn't what matters. What matters is the shape our nation is in when voters finally go to the polls, and who is most responsible for that. What matters for Democrats is doing what is right, while standing firmly on principle and for the people who are being hurt by the Trump regime, while the democratic republic left us by our ancestors continues to be dismantled.

Disney Owns ABC. I think we all know how to apply pressure. N/T

I pledge to spend AT LEAST 100 Million fighting Trump before the MidTerms

...If I win the Powerball jackpot on Saturday. Who is with me?