General Discussion

California pretty much pays for Virginia - thank you!

Seriously though, someone posted yesterday that California should leave, and although I don't want any state to leave the Union, I do wonder about the financial mechanics of it all, since it can't be looked at in a static manner. I think about this kind of stuff whenever a state (usually Texas LOL) talks about leaving.

Yes, in 2023 California paid about $78B more in federal taxes than they got back (~$2k/capita), but it's not like that $79B would suddenly become available if California seceded. All of the military members stationed in California (~155,000) as well as ~140,000 federal civilian employees will either be gone from the new country, or they'll leave the U.S. military/government and stay; either way, those federal payments don't come to California any longer, and if they leave the new country, the local & state taxes as well as the economic activity they participate in will be gone. Major defense contractors could well decide that relocating into the new U.S. from the new California would be best for their businesses - again, an unknown.

Some people (and businesses) will leave California because they want to remain in the U.S., and some people (and businesses) will leave the U.S. and come to the new Nation of California because they want to be California citizens. That will have an impact - no idea whether it would be a net positive or negative financial impact, from a California perspective.

California currently has a trade deficit within the U.S. - if California becomes its own country, would that become better or worse, since now we're talking the potential of tariffs? Again, no idea.

Water rights - will the interstate compacts that currently govern much of the water that flows into southern California remain the same, or will California have to pay more for water since they're now a sovereign nation? No idea.

National defense for the Nation of California - at the very least, California will need a coast guard/navy, and perhaps an army and air force as well. None of that will be cheap.

I'm not saying that California couldn't become its own nation and do just fine, rather, I'm pointing out that it's not as simple as it seems, and from a purely financial perspective, not sure it would be worth it for ~$2,000 per person.