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Happy Hoosier

(9,262 posts)

44. Remeber that polls use Turnout models.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Original post)

Thu Nov 6, 2025, 09:39 AM

Thursday

And that's hard. The hardest thing in polling is figuring out the likely voter model. They underestimated how motivated we are the hamstring the TFG.

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Polls were wrong, no major races were close [View all] Johnny2X2X Nov 5 OP

I predicted a blowout because, gab13by13 Nov 5 #1

The only way to rread political polls since the 2000s is, add 5 points to Democratic and reduce Republicans by. The goal ShazamIam Nov 5 #33

Except for Presidential elections? nt mr715 Nov 5 #37

Those vote counts are rigged Farmer-Rick Thursday #42

Trump is roundly despised outside his cult: not disliked - but despised Prairie Gates Nov 5 #2

Corporate media had been unsuccessfully selling their "voters hate Democrats, too" narrative for months. sop Nov 5 #4

Over and over. tavernier Nov 5 #18

2026 could be an absolute historic blowout Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #5

As the saying goes: From your mouth (writing) to the Goddess' ear. efhmc Nov 5 #6

If the MAGAs and former-MAGAs stayed home, isn't it the same result? FakeNoose Nov 5 #25

When the polls are wrong crud Nov 5 #3

or stayed home. mopinko Nov 5 #13

I think that is a big part of it crud Nov 5 #39

I studied this at University IbogaProject Nov 5 #29

I don't answer text surveys crud Nov 5 #38

Jobs, food, healthcare, generally not being an ahole underpants Nov 5 #7

Democrat Sean Ryan won the Buffalo mayoral race La Coliniere Nov 5 #8

Pollsters didn't account for SocialDemocrat61 Nov 5 #9

How did we do outside major cities? C_U_L8R Nov 5 #10

Dems made gains in every single county in Virginia Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #11

Thank goodness! C_U_L8R Nov 5 #12

One of our posters said their upstate town in NY shifted to D IbogaProject Nov 5 #34

So much for the "tightening" races. 3catwoman3 Nov 5 #14

And regarding Houston, we have to wait till February or March... ananda Nov 5 #15

Some were Boo1 Nov 5 #16

And our Prop 50 should end at about 62-64% obamanut2012 Nov 5 #17

Looking like that Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #19

Exactly -- I am very glad he is our Governor obamanut2012 Nov 5 #20

That's almost embarrassing for the MAGA cult. BigmanPigman Nov 5 #21

The MSM tends to believe their own myths (nt) William Seger Nov 5 #23

Knowing what 2026 looks like, I'm guessing they'll pull out all the stops rather than pull back William Seger Nov 5 #22

363 Days Until The 2026 Midterms... Wednesdays Nov 5 #24

Any DUers here get polled? IronLionZion Nov 5 #26

Don't get complacent.... MaeScott Nov 5 #27

zero evidence. and I wish people would stop .... stopdiggin Nov 5 #30

substantially true - with the one quibble being the Mandami race stopdiggin Nov 5 #28

I'm Certain I Am in Good Company (Millions!!) in Having Largely Silenced the Corporate Media a Good Long Time Ago The Roux Comes First Nov 5 #31

I expect the corporate media to respond Johnny2X2X Nov 5 #32

I'm Sure You're Right. I've Had More Than Enough of That "Local Color" to Last Me a Lifetime! The Roux Comes First Nov 5 #35

The polls didn't consider the women. . . .Trump has energized the Women's Movement h2ebits Nov 5 #36

IMO, demolishing the East Wing was his way of putting up a BOYS ONLY sign on the White House. CrispyQ Thursday #41

All that gerrymandering in red states could very well backfire. CrispyQ Thursday #40

I agree with this too Johnny2X2X Thursday #43

Remeber that polls use Turnout models. Happy Hoosier Thursday #44