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edhopper

(36,840 posts)
Sat Nov 8, 2025, 10:12 AM Saturday

Why Musk will never get his trillion $ [View all]

These are the goals he must meet;

The pay package stands to give the CEO the control he sought, with as much as a 25% stake in the company. Unlocking all 12 tranches of Tesla stock, for the largest possible financial reward, will require the company's market cap to reach at least $8.5 trillion and profits of $400 billion, and for the company to meet product goals including 20 million car deliveries, 1 million robots sold, and 1 million robotaxis in operation. (Tesla's market cap is around $1.3 trillion currently and it reported $4.2 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the third quarter.34)


Forget Tesla's terribly overinflated stock with a price to earnings at 400x.
Here are some links about Tesla's income.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/net-income
https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/TSLA/earnings-history

Tesla income is actually declining. The Cybertruck is one of the biggest failures in car history, Tesla AI is a poor wannabe, and his driverless robotaxi is another promise that will take forever to get to market, if it ever does (he promissed driverless cars by 2020).

Tesla's best year was profits of $ 15 billion, now down to under $10. So with a car brand that is being shunned globally, and products that may never reach market. Tesla has to grow it's sales over 40x for Musk to earn this ridiculous pay out.

Tesla's best year was under 2 million cars sold worldwide. Does anybody see them reaching sales of automakers like Toyota or Honda?

For Tesla to reach the Market Cap in the goals it's current stock price of around $400 would have to reach almost $2000.

Tesla currently has a Price to Earnings ratio of over 300. In comparison, almost all other car makers have a PE of around 10. Nvidia, the AI Chip maker and darling of the stock market has one of around 50. So Tesla's stock price is predicated that it will grow 6 times more than Nvidia, who is actually making something people are buying.

All this money is predicated on a stock price that is based on a cult of personality and the foolishness of the investor class. The real numbers for Tesla income show a different picture.
Given Musk's track record of failed promises, empty concepts and actual failures. I don't see where Tesla pays him a trillion $.


*This is just a general overall view and not a in depth analysis. So my numbers could be off somewhat, but not enough to change my conclusions.



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When China pulls the rug out from under him Historic NY Saturday #1
Yep edhopper Saturday #6
Because China has now captured a bigger sale of their affordable EV's to the EU countires. Historic NY Saturday #12
That just reinforces edhopper Saturday #14
I once stayed up all night NJCher Saturday #23
thanks for taking the time to explain that. AltairIV Saturday #2
He shit on the Tesla brand, then set it on fire . . . hatrack Saturday #3
It will be the worlds biggest car manufacture within 10 years Polybius Saturday #5
You funny edhopper Saturday #7
Well, there's no way to prove either of our points Polybius Saturday #9
I will be glad to be anywhere in 10 years edhopper Saturday #10
Here's to hoping that we'll both be around and prosperous! Polybius Saturday #13
No...but they might be BOUGHT by the biggest car manufacture within 10 years. Bengus81 Saturday #27
I wouldn't count Tesla out Polybius Saturday #4
Sales have been flat edhopper Saturday #8
Here Polybius Saturday #11
This was a one off edhopper Saturday #15
If the growth was spurred by the expiration of the tax credits EdmondDantes_ Saturday #17
That was for 2024 Bluestocking Saturday #20
He's already halfway there on paper Shermann Saturday #16
It's not about his net worth edhopper Saturday #22
Sort of Diraven Saturday #30
Thanks Edhopper, JMCKUSICK Saturday #18
Something that I have noticed popsdenver Saturday #19
That's because after all the shit Musk caused Bluestocking Saturday #21
I can vouch for that... littlemissmartypants Saturday #25
Sounds almost like. popsdenver Saturday #38
Coming to a deserted dealership near you: The TESLA Edsel Attilatheblond Saturday #24
The more that Tesla autopilot is used, the more apparent its fatal flaw will become William Seger Saturday #26
Musk likely won't ever receive his $Trillion payout ToxMarz Saturday #28
They might be banking on the new iteration of Tesla Mblaze Saturday #29
Will not happen edhopper Saturday #34
Thanks. It figures. Mblaze Saturday #37
Epstein Files (allegedly) Elon's cult. flvegan Saturday #31
This is a well reasoned commentary on the situation. flashman13 Saturday #32
10 years ago, before he went crazy, that goal might have been possible. But Tesla, once at the forefront of EV Fil1957 Saturday #33
Selling cars that haven't been redesigned edhopper Saturday #35
Musk has overseen the biggest failure in the auto industry edhopper Saturday #36
Tesla only survives because the FAR superior Chinese EV vehicles are effectively prohibited from sales in the US. /nt artemisia1 Sunday #39
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