Trump has lied a lot over time, and in general it has worked for him. Will this time be different?

Yes. Voters do sometimes believe lies, but not the kind of lies Trump is telling.

Voters can sometimes be convinced, falsely, that bad things are happening to other people, even when they themselves are doing OK. Many Americans who don’t live in Chicago probably believe administration claims that the city, which just had its safest summer since the 1960s, is a war zone.

But telling people that things are great when their personal experience says otherwise is different. Are violent mobs overrunning Portland? If you watch Fox News, you might believe that. Are groceries “way down,” as Trump keeps insisting? Anyone who does their own food shopping — even Republicans — knows that this isn’t true. Reupping a chart from yesterday’s post: