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The market is too focused on rate cuts. By time rate cuts arrive they might be happening because of a softening economy (employment side of the Fed mandate) and the market might realize that is not such a good thing.

The market wants rate cuts to boost investment and thereby profits, but investment was steady until tRump disrupted international trade. Now there is a lot of investment in "capex", capital expenditures, for AI "data centers" and some tentative onshoring in response to tariffs, but a lot of the big investments that tRump is bleeting about will be slow to occur because the trade and tariff environment is so uncertain right now. It's as if everyone, CEOs on down to berry pickers, is gripping the gunwales of the rowboat with a death grip and whispering "steady as she goes, don't rock the boat, keep your head down".

The job market is tight: unemployment claims are not moving much but that's not because of business expansion. It's because workers are sitting tight, not trying to find better positions and companies are not hiring much in the way of new hires. Government layoffs are cushioned by many choosing "deferred resignation" that kicks in September and later.

There is a lot of unemployment due to ICE raids, but those workers don't file unemployment claims, especially with Gnome and {in}Homan pawing through confidential government databases. All the same, the meat packer or construction worker not working is also not spending.