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progree

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37. Marketwatch warned yesterday that the GDP number would be high, but not because economy is great

Wed Jul 30, 2025, 11:16 AM

Jul 30

Last edited Wed Jul 30, 2025, 11:53 AM - Edit history (1)

GDP is ready to pop, but not because the U.S. economy is popping, Marketwatch, 7/29/25
(remember, this is well-before the release of today's GDP report)
https://archive.ph/LPmfZ

By the way the last and final estimate of Q1 GDP was minus 0.2%.
So, averaging the two quarters together: -0.2% and +3.0% = 2.8%/2 = 1.4%

Edit I was wrong about Q1 GDP, it is reported as minus 0.5% in today's release

https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimate
and https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

So, like you say, the 2 quarters average to just 1.25%

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Bernardo de La Paz

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Highlight:

U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump's tariffs hit [View all] BumRushDaShow Jul 30 OP

Am I supposed to believe that? JMCKUSICK Jul 30 #1

Always my first response. How do you believe a bunch of liars? mdbl Jul 30 #39

I just think of it as Trumpaganda. ananda Jul 30 #40

This is due to a downturn in imports and an uptick Phoenix61 Jul 30 #2

The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP" progree Jul 30 #24

Flipped. Igel Jul 30 #42

Maybe for the upper class................. Lovie777 Jul 30 #3

And people that i know of, losing their jobs LisaL Jul 30 #14

Well, that's what's important, isn't it? OldBaldy1701E Jul 30 #41

Sure it did Bluestocking Jul 30 #4

And the inflation indicator was much lower than forecast FBaggins Jul 30 #5

According to who? Miguelito Loveless Jul 30 #6

The Bureau of Economic Analysis FBaggins Jul 30 #10

No part of the government is independent anymore. NutmegYankee Jul 30 #15

Thank you for pointing out the facts, even if they run counter to the rampant confirmation bias on full display here. nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #18

We're consistent here: Good economic numbers result in endless charges of "cooked books" and "Krasnov manipulation" progree Jul 30 #29

So, no one there Miguelito Loveless Jul 30 #33

Yes... you're being paranoid FBaggins Jul 30 #36

I don't remember the "previous 3.7%", but you are right -- progree Jul 30 #26

A cooked book diversion from epstein Javaman Jul 30 #7

Not cooked, not a diversion though it was seized upon by cheerleader-in-chief Hassett, number one economics toady Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #32

Marketwatch warned yesterday that the GDP number would be high, but not because economy is great progree Jul 30 #37

I am nor rooting against the U.S. economy. n/t speak easy Jul 30 #8

I'm not rooting against the economy but...there have been warnings from economists about book-cooking Maeve Jul 30 #9

Warnings only. None of them say it is occurring. None of them distrust the figures at this point. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #22

Of course, the media is ALL over this. So eager to give the orange asshole some credit. hamsterjill Jul 30 #11

I am having trouble believing it as well. LisaL Jul 30 #12

I retired this spring from a national homebuilding company hamsterjill Jul 30 #16

Bullshit! The RMVP was more belivable than our current commerce department. NutmegYankee Jul 30 #13

Cynicism blinds many people. A form of confirmation bias. Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #17

Maybe it would be easier to believe LisaL Jul 30 #19

There are legitimate reasons why the figure is up even while you see anecdotal evidence against it Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #20

I am living the "anecdotal evidence." LisaL Jul 30 #21

Yeah, the economy is not homogeneous so it's can be hard to reconcile sometimes. unblock Jul 30 #25

Yeah, I have access to a lot of private business data, and what we're seeing aligns with decent gdp growth unblock Jul 30 #23

Frontrunning tariffs with imports juiced the numbers bucolic_frolic Jul 30 #27

If "they" tell you things are good then by god things are good - next question? walkingman Jul 30 #28

Statistics coming out of this administration are not credible Ritabert Jul 30 #30

Yet the price gouging at the kitchen table continues. I have yet to see a any type of relief from grocery prices Cheezoholic Jul 30 #31

I keep waiting for the economic problems that were forecast during the Trump presidency, where are they in the numbers? dem4decades Jul 30 #34

The last CPI report was kinda hot, and people here took it as confirmation that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages progree Jul 30 #38

Fake news Rebl2 Jul 30 #35