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progree

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38. The last CPI report was kinda hot, and people here took it as confirmation that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages

Reply to dem4decades (Reply #34)

Wed Jul 30, 2025, 11:33 AM

Jul 30

were re-igniting inflation.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143496078

We get a look at PCE inflation for June tomorrow, the Fed's favorite gauge. I don't expect it to be as high as the CPI report was, because it seldom is. That's partly or mostly because the PCE is a "chained" index which means that, for example, if enough consumers switch from beef to turkey necks and other lower-cost kinds of meat, then it will show up as a decrease in meat prices in the PCE. That's because chained types of indices fully include substitution effects.

One other thing comes to mind: the PCE puts LESS weight on shelter than the CPI does. Shelter increases have been high relative to most other components, so this tends to make the PCE come out lower than the CPI.

The estimate for tomorrow's PCE June over May increases are +0.3% for both the regular and the core numbers (those are about 3.6% when annualized, which is kinda hot), but I doubt they will be that high, again because of the substitution effect.

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U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump's tariffs hit [View all] BumRushDaShow Jul 30 OP

Am I supposed to believe that? JMCKUSICK Jul 30 #1

Always my first response. How do you believe a bunch of liars? mdbl Jul 30 #39

I just think of it as Trumpaganda. ananda Jul 30 #40

This is due to a downturn in imports and an uptick Phoenix61 Jul 30 #2

The reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted, that's why it's called "real GDP" progree Jul 30 #24

Flipped. Igel Jul 30 #42

Maybe for the upper class................. Lovie777 Jul 30 #3

And people that i know of, losing their jobs LisaL Jul 30 #14

Well, that's what's important, isn't it? OldBaldy1701E Jul 30 #41

Sure it did Bluestocking Jul 30 #4

And the inflation indicator was much lower than forecast FBaggins Jul 30 #5

According to who? Miguelito Loveless Jul 30 #6

The Bureau of Economic Analysis FBaggins Jul 30 #10

No part of the government is independent anymore. NutmegYankee Jul 30 #15

Thank you for pointing out the facts, even if they run counter to the rampant confirmation bias on full display here. nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #18

We're consistent here: Good economic numbers result in endless charges of "cooked books" and "Krasnov manipulation" progree Jul 30 #29

So, no one there Miguelito Loveless Jul 30 #33

Yes... you're being paranoid FBaggins Jul 30 #36

I don't remember the "previous 3.7%", but you are right -- progree Jul 30 #26

A cooked book diversion from epstein Javaman Jul 30 #7

Not cooked, not a diversion though it was seized upon by cheerleader-in-chief Hassett, number one economics toady Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #32

Marketwatch warned yesterday that the GDP number would be high, but not because economy is great progree Jul 30 #37

I am nor rooting against the U.S. economy. n/t speak easy Jul 30 #8

I'm not rooting against the economy but...there have been warnings from economists about book-cooking Maeve Jul 30 #9

Warnings only. None of them say it is occurring. None of them distrust the figures at this point. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #22

Of course, the media is ALL over this. So eager to give the orange asshole some credit. hamsterjill Jul 30 #11

I am having trouble believing it as well. LisaL Jul 30 #12

I retired this spring from a national homebuilding company hamsterjill Jul 30 #16

Bullshit! The RMVP was more belivable than our current commerce department. NutmegYankee Jul 30 #13

Cynicism blinds many people. A form of confirmation bias. Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #17

Maybe it would be easier to believe LisaL Jul 30 #19

There are legitimate reasons why the figure is up even while you see anecdotal evidence against it Bernardo de La Paz Jul 30 #20

I am living the "anecdotal evidence." LisaL Jul 30 #21

Yeah, the economy is not homogeneous so it's can be hard to reconcile sometimes. unblock Jul 30 #25

Yeah, I have access to a lot of private business data, and what we're seeing aligns with decent gdp growth unblock Jul 30 #23

Frontrunning tariffs with imports juiced the numbers bucolic_frolic Jul 30 #27

If "they" tell you things are good then by god things are good - next question? walkingman Jul 30 #28

Statistics coming out of this administration are not credible Ritabert Jul 30 #30

Yet the price gouging at the kitchen table continues. I have yet to see a any type of relief from grocery prices Cheezoholic Jul 30 #31

I keep waiting for the economic problems that were forecast during the Trump presidency, where are they in the numbers? dem4decades Jul 30 #34

The last CPI report was kinda hot, and people here took it as confirmation that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages progree Jul 30 #38

Fake news Rebl2 Jul 30 #35